ANLY 515 Late Summer 2019 Midterm Exam Instructor: Dr. Martin A. Negrón
• Please follow the instructions (upload 4 files) (don’t upload compressed zip files)
• Please provide your answers as a pdf file (screenshots – one file) [don’t write please refer to
model for answers]
• Upload an excel file with your simulations (create a tab for each problem) (one file)
• Upload a Bayesian Belief Network model for each problem (2 files)
• This exam must be completed individually. Any collaboration will automatically result in a 0.
• Make sure that you upload your own work, plagiarized material result in a 0 for the midterm
and an F for the course
• Late uploads will incur a 10 point penalty for each day the upload is late (no exceptions)
Problem 1
The school cafeteria has decided to make 30 roasted chickens for the lunch rush. The cafeteria determined that daily demand will follow the distribution shown in the following table:
Daily Demand Probability 15 0.08
20 0.12
25 0.25
30 0.21 35 0.20 40 0.14
Each chicken costs $7.50 to make and can be sold for $15. It is possible for the cafeteria to sell any unsold chickens for $5 the next day.
a. Simulate one month (30 days) of operation to calculate the cateria’s total monthly roasted chicken profit. Replicate this calculation 20 times to compute the average total monthly profit.
b. The cafeteria would like to verify the profitability of making 20, 25, 30, or 35 chickens during the lunch rush. Which quantity would you recommend? Why?
Problem 2
A drone company has a new app based programmable toy that they are planning to market. The proposed price of the mini-drone is $12.00, and marketing expects to sell 850,000 units, following a normal distribution with a mean of 800,000 and the relatively high standard deviation of 275,000 (and a minimum of 0). Production costs are estimated to be normally distributed with a mean of $565,000 and a standard deviation of $52,000. Per-unit costs are normally distributed with a mean of $3.00 and a standard deviation of $0.25. Selling expenses
are lognormally distributed with a mean of $900,000 and standard deviation of $50,000. General and administrative costs are fixed at $300,000.
a. Identify the mean and standard deviation, and range for profit. Problem 3
Using the diagram below calculate: a. Pr(P2|-P3)
b. Pr(P1|-P3,P4) c. Pr(P2|-P3,-P1)
Problem 4
It is great to have a corporate car to handle the daily trips but it is only helpful if it has enough gas for the next trip. Mike and Jim are the people that use the car the most. Mike is not very responsible about refueling the car. If Mike used the car and Jim used the car, there is a 70% probability that the car will have gas but if Mike used the car and Jim didn’t then there is a 90% probability that the car won’t have enough gas. When Mike doesn’t use the car then things are better because if only Jim uses the car then there is a 90% probability that the car will have gas. When neither one uses the car the probability of having enough gas is 50%. If the car doesn’t enough gas there is a 90% probability that it won’t be used but if it does, then there is the same probability that it will be used. I wanted to use the car but decided not to use it, what is the probability that Mike was the last one to use it?
Problem 5
Using the link below, write short paper (pdf) explaining how the information from the news report could be used to identify uncertainties and identify the decisions associated with the uncertainties that could be facilitated by developing a risk model.
https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-019-02737-8
a. Identify 3 risk areas
b. Identify 2 risks associated with the news article (Remember that risks are stated
based on impact and likelihood)
If __________, then ____________
c. Identify 10 variables that could potentially affect the risks identified
d. Create an influence diagram using the variables from step 5
e. Discuss what type of modeling tool (from the tools discussed in class) you would use
to build the model and describe how the expected output would help to evaluate the risks.