Logistics and
Supply Chain
Management
TUTORIAL 6: FIRST PRINCIPLES AND THE FUTURE OF
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SUPPLY CHAINS MS. BING HAN
EBU6609 LOGISTICS AND SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT 2
EBU6609 Logistics and Supply Chain Management
1. First Principles Reasoning
2. Apply First-Principles- Thinking in Supply Chains
Follow the steps of First-Principles- Thinking:
◦ A. Decide, within your team, the goal(s) for your supply chain in post-COVID world.
◦ B. List assumptions and obstacles.
◦ C. Check against 1st principles one by one.
◦ D. Find out creative solutions without using analogy.
◦ E: Presentation (3-5 mins), discussion and summary.
Interview w. Elon Mask (2013)
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Management 2
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First Principles Reasoning
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1st Principle
A first principle is a foundational proposition or assumption that stands alone. We cannot deduce first principles from any other proposition or assumption.
Aristotle, writing[1] on first principles, said:
In every systematic inquiry (methodos) where there are first principles, or causes, or elements, knowledge and science result from acquiring knowledge of these; for we think we know something just in case we acquire knowledge of the primary causes, the primary first principles, all the way to the elements.
EBU6609 Logistics and Supply Chain
Management 3
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Previous Methodology used in our Case Studies
EBU6609 LOGISTICS AND SUPPLY CHAIN MANAGEMENT
Situation Analysis – What’s the problem?
Possible solutions Recommendation
First Principle Reasoning: steps
Step 1: Identify your vision or goal Must be clear and specific
Step 2: List all obstacles and actions These are what you think you need to do
Step 3: Discover first principles?
Break down current assumptions about the obstacles and actions by asking powerful questions
Step 4: Build new creative solutions Use first principles to reason up
EBU6609 Logistics and Supply Chain
Management 4
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Your Objective for YOUR Supply Chain
What’s the first principle you want to start from?
Does this proposition stand with no assumptions?
What’s the implication based on this principle?
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Limitations or assumptions
1. Check against the 1st principle;
2. Find a new solution without referring to the current business models or processes.
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Management 5
Solutions – presentation (3-5 mins)
Introduce your 1st principle Creative solution, with visual aids. Other thoughts/discussion Comments by the audience
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References:
◦ https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NV3sBlRgzT I
◦ https://fs.blog/2018/04/first-principles/
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EBU6609 Logistics and Supply Chain
Management 6
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