TrustMonday2017
Risk Communication
• Risk is socially constructed
• It can often have little correlation to actual
risk
• After 9/11 many people drove instead of
flying
– Many more car accidents
– Many more deaths
How Is Risk Perceived?
How about?
3 million per year
1-2 per year (OZ)
10 per year (UK)
1. Which of the following is most likely to
happen to you?
a) Being struck by lightning
b) Being infected with flesh-eating bacteria
c) Being injured in an elevator ride
Quick Quiz
lightning 1 in 750,000, flesh-eating bacteria 1 in 700,000,
elevator 1 in 6 million.
2.At which establishment are you
most likely to be poisoned?
a) Fast-food restaurant
b) Delicatessen
c) Mexican restaurant
Fast-food 1 in 440,000, Delicatessen 1 in
240,000 Mexican 1 in 136,000
3.Which of the following is most
likely to kill you in the next 12
months?
a) Drinking detergent
b) Dog bite
c) Snake bite
Detergent 1 in 23 million, dog bite 1 in 20 million, snakebite 1 in 36 million.
4.Which of the following accounts
for the most childhood
accidental deaths?
a) Fire
b) Choking
c) Poisoning
fire 15%, choking 3%, poison 1%
5.Which of the following takes the
most off your life expectancy?
a) Driving once without a seat belt
on
b) Drinking one diet soft drink
c) Smoking one cigarette
Driving without seatbelt 6 seconds, one diet soft drink 9 seconds, one
cigarette 12 minutes.
6. What is the risk of your being wiped out
(with nearly everybody else) next year by a
catastrophic comet, meteor, or asteroid
impact?
– One in 750,000
– One in 20,000
– One in 15 million
• it can cause excessive sweating and vomiting
• it is a major component in acid rain
• it can cause severe burns in its gaseous state
• accidental inhalation can kill you
• it contributes to erosion
• it decreases effectiveness of automobile
brakes
• it has been found in tumours of terminal
cancer patients
Should we ban this substance?
dihydrogen monoxideWater
Edinburgh – Mary King’s Close
in 1645 life of the close was
shattered forever. The plague
struck this little community and
there is a myth that the local
council decided to contain the
plague by incarcerating the
victims,
bricking up the close for several
years and leaving them to die
inside to die. It is likely that this is
why the close was nicknamed
‘street of sorrows’
• People start getting worried!
• What should the authorities do?
Plague!
A skill that allows you to
communicate
during difficult situations and to
make sure
that what you say is remembered
in situations of stress
Risk Communication
• When stressed, people struggle to listen
– Most emergency numbers have only 3 digits
• Keep your message simple
• Repetition is the key
• LISTEN!
– Understand, appreciate, empathise
• People will probably be negative
– Deliver a positive message
Communicating Risk
1. Well informed
2. Asked people to remain calm
3. Told them to evacuate lower Manhattan
4. Assured them that the city was being
protected
5. Reassured residents of NY
6. Admits lots of lives lost
7. Says focus will be on saving as many as
possible
9/11
• Preparedness!
– They had prepared for any eventuality
– Including how to communicate with a distressed
populace
– And with the media
– Compassion
– Conviction
– Optimism
Giuliani’s Secret
1. Decide what needs to be communicated
(be informed)
2. Understand how people perceive the risk
(listen!)
3. Come up with options to bring
perceptions into line with reality (the
facts, but don’t be dismissive)
4. Engender Trust (empathise)
5. Give behaviorally realistic advice (simple
message, repeated)
Risk Communication
• Until 1998 vaccination coverage was 92%
• In 1998 Wakefield was the first to make the
claim that autism and the MMR vaccine are
linked
• People stopped having their children
vaccinated
MMR Vaccine
• Media hyped the threat
• The response of “the establishment”
confirmed for some their suspicions that
inconvenient truths would be covered up
– The handling of the earlier BSE crisis lent support
to this view.
• the chief medical officer would not meet
parents’ concerns half way by sanctioning
access to single disease vaccinations
• parents are acting conscientiously as norms
dictate, not selfishly
What went wrong?
• challenge to authority, including the
authority of science, should be expected
• the establishment should disseminate
evidence to the public in way that is sensitive
to diverse groups
• communicating risk
• It is about much more than providing even
the best of information
So What Should Happen Now?
It is a matter of two way
communication and obtaining
agreement. Concordance has to
be the aim if compliance is to fall
into place
Paul Bellaby (BMJ)
• The Scottish Environment Protection Agency
(Sepa) said no material had been released
into the environment and that the leak was
“minor”.
• I have also been briefed by senior
management at Dounreay and have been
assured that this is a very minor leak that
was spotted quickly and contained within the
plant. As no uncontrolled release of
radioactive effluent has occurred outside the
plant there is no direct role for Sepa.
Risk Communication
What needs to be Communicated: There
is no Risk
Perceptions -> Reality
• It is important that all those involved make
information available on an open,
transparent and regular basis, principles that
are especially important where the nuclear
industry is concerned and I conveyed this
point to Dounreay’s management.
• DSRL said it will work with the Office for
Nuclear Regulation to conduct an
investigation into the reasons for the leak. It
said there was no release of radioactivity to
the environment and no harm to the
workers.
Engender Trust
You don’t have to do anything!
We will investigate
Spider Phobia
Only sixty-three deaths were reported in
the United States between 1950 and
1989
Behaviourally Realistic Device
Perceptions -> Reality
Behaviourally Realistic Device
Perceptions -> Reality
• Karl-Heinz Funke (2000) says Germany is
immune to BSE
• One week later the first sick cow is
discovered
• Funke resigned, Kuenast appointed
• Move to organic farming announced
• Direct controls implemented
• Trust restored
Risk Communication
• 2001 – first case of BSE in Japan
• Minister promises no more & sick animal
destroyed
• The animal HAD been used to make feed
• EU document states Japan is high risk of BSE
• Insufficient controls implemented
• Beef sales sank to 0
• Takebe tells people meat is safe but they
don’t believe him
Risk Communication
Activity
• There is a new emailed virus going around
your organisation
• The email appears to come from the
managing director and is titled “Layoffs”. An
attachment installs the virus
• People are accustomed to getting emailed
attachments from him
• You need to communicate the risk to the
organisation’s employees
• Create poster, we will pick two and then
critique
1. Decide what needs to be communicated
(be informed)
2. Understand how people perceive the risk
(listen!)
3. Come up with options to bring
perceptions into line with reality (the
facts, but don’t be dismissive)
4. Engender Trust (empathise)
5. Give behaviorally realistic advice (simple
message, repeated)
Risk Communication
•Within Glasgow local GPs are alarmed
by suddenly increasing cases where
young children are reporting to GP
surgeries with diarrhoea and sickness
• First analysis from responsible
laboratories indicate that milk produced
in a certain region might be
contaminated.
•What are you going to do to warn the
public?
Activity
Activity – Mary King’s Close
Design a Poster
to communicate
the fact that there is
no Plague
in this area
and no risk in
visiting
Trust
HUMAN-CENTRED SECURITY
TRUST
TRUST
RELIABILITY
PREDICTABILITY COOPERATION
GOODWILL
EXPECTATION
The Importance of
Trust
• Productive relationships are based on trust –
often unrecognized and taken for granted
• It’s a resource that increases with use
• Enables coordination without coercion
• Enables commitments to be undertaken in
situations of high risk
TRUSTING
TRUSTING
Whom do YOU Trust?
• Family?
• Friends?
• Employer?
• Government?
• Me?
• It depends….
• Why do you trust them?
Meaning?
The act of placing yourself in the
vulnerable position of relying on
others to treat you in a fair, open, and
honest way
Which one would
you trust?
A B C
make split-second judgments on faces on two major measures —
whether the person should be approached or avoided and
whether the person is weak or strong.
Would you Trust?
What leads us to
trust people?
Perceived trustworthiness is associated with
• demographic similarity in newer
relationships,
• with trustworthy behaviour in relationships
that are neither brand new nor old but in-
between, and
• with shared perspective in older relationships
Revealed intentions
Trust
• We trust
– Different people
– To different degrees
– To do different things
• We expect them to fulfill their commitment
• We expect sincerity
• An accusation of untrustworthiness is a
moral criticism
Waves of Trust
Kinds?
Why?
Competence
Capacity &
Ability
Profession
Intentions
Past
Experiences
Feelings & Facts
Credibility
Intentions
• In the GDR, one Stasi officer or informant for every 63
people. If part-time informers are included, some
estimates have the ratio as high as one informer for every
6.5 citizens
• Informant reports enter databases for future reference
and/or action … [which] will then be broadly available
within the department, related agencies and local police
forces. The targeted individual will remain unaware of the
existence of the report and of its contents
• Informants have apparently been used to frame targets
for crimes or to participate in staged events which foster
character assassination.
East Germany
• Suspicion
• Fear
• Lack of trust
Trust Me….
WCYT Website
Who do we Trust???
• 1950 people (http://www.quibblo.com)
The Importance of
Trust
• Productive relationships are based on trust
– often unrecognized and taken for granted
• It’s a resource that increases with use
• Enables coordination without coercion
• Enables commitments to be undertaken in
situations of high risk
• Think about your most productive
relationships
– How much trust is there?
The Importance of
Trust
• It makes social life predictable,
• it creates a sense of community, and
• it makes it easier for people to work together
• The opposite of trust is:
– Control
– Surveillance
– Accountability
Building Trust
Trust
Intention
Preparation
Mechanics
Self Knowledge
Outcomes
Communication
Deep Listening
Level I:Internal
Listening
at theWord level.
Level III:Intuitive
Listening at the
Essence level
Level II: Focused
Listening
at the Feeling level
FOCUS ON
YOU
FOCUS ON ME
Trust Barriers
• Distance Barriers – telephone, email, fax – lacks the “high
touch” – psychological separation
• Physical Barriers – the structure of the meeting place
• Language Barriers – language used may not be the first
language of both parties.
• Cultural Barriers – trust may mean different things and be
built in different ways e.g.
• North America – Demonstrated performance over time
• China, Latin America, Arab countries – relationships –
social interaction over time
Mistrust
Roots of Low Trust in
the Workplace
Ü Lack of inclusion
Ü Feelings of deprivation and loss
Ü Perceptions of vulnerability
Ü No positive attachment to a “boss”
Ü Previous experiences – yours or
other peoples
Sociology
• Position and role of trust in social systems
• Attributable to relationships between social actors
• A social construct
• Trust acts as to reduce social
complexity, allowing for
actions that are otherwise too
complex to be considered
• Fostering cooperation
Psychology
• Judged on a Personal level
• Believing that the person who is trusted will do
what is expected
• A person’s dispositional tendency to trust
others can be considered a personality trait
• Trust increases subjective well-being because it
enhances the quality interpersonal
relationships
Trust Models
Social Identity
• Trust in strangers as a function of group-based
stereotypes
• People expect better treatment from in-group
members in comparison to out-group members
• Trust is granted more readily to in-group
members than out-group members
Edinburgh vs
Glasgow
Philosophy
• Trust is more than a relationship of reliance
• Trust can be betrayed, whilst reliance can
only be disappointed
– we can rely on our alarm clock to wake us, but
we do not feel betrayed when it breaks
– a truster accepts the risk of being betrayed
• trust is a belief in something or a confident
expectation
Economics
• Individuals desire to maximize their utility
• Trust
– reduces the cost of transactions between parties,
– enables new forms of cooperation and
– generally furthers business activities
• Trust should equal the trustworthiness of the other
party
– Trusting less leads to the loss of economic
opportunities,
– Trusting more leads to unnecessary
vulnerabilities and potential exploitation
The Economics Of Trust
• Trust always affects two outcomes
– SPEED and COST.
How? Can you explain?
The Economics Of
Trust
WHEN TRUST GOES DOWN, SPEED WILL ALSO GO DOWN AND COSTS WILL GO UP
WHEN TRUST GOES UP, SPEED WILL ALSO GO UP AND COSTS WILL GO DOWN
Quotes
• Distrust is very expensive (Emerson)
• A culture of suspicion has generated
demands for accountability which have in
turn undermined trust and professional
responsibility, whilst consuming time and
resources diverted from elsewhere (Onora
O’Neill – Reith Lectures)
Mistrust/Distrust
• Both mean
– (1) lack of trust or
– (2) to regard without trust
• distrust is often based on experience or
reliable information
• mistrust is often a general sense of unease
toward someone or something
THE ECONOMICS OF
TRUST
• Best example is, the air travel to US before and after
09/11 attack:
• Immediately following the 09/11 terrorist attacks,
trust in flying in the US went down drastically.
• Prior to 09/11, Passengers used to arrive at the airport
before half an hour only to go through security check
up.
• After 09/11, passengers have to arrive at the airport
atleast 2 1/2 hours earlier. Also, they have to pay
security tax .
• Trust went down, speed went down and cost went
up.
Myth busters
• What do you think about the following? Are
they correct?
• TRUST IS SLOW.
No, nothing is as fast as speed of trust.
Myth busters
• What do you think about the following? Are
they correct?
• TRUST IS BUILT SOLELY ON INTEGRITY
No, trust is a function of both character (which
includes integrity) and competence.
Myth busters
• What do you think about the following? Are
they correct?
• ONCE LOST, TRUST CAN NOT BE RESTORED
Though difficult, in most cases, lost trust can
be restored.
Why Is It So Hard to
Rebuild Trust?
• Why is it hard for people to do? Typically
involves admissions of guilt, apology,
compensation and/or punishment – each
of which may have significant costs.
• Why is it hard to accept from someone?
Involves repeating a decision that was
proven to be wrong the first time.
Isaac Newton
Men build too many walls and
not enough bridges
Rebuilding Trust – SLOW
Process
1. Address the behaviours which created
distrust
2. have each person responsible for a violation
of trust apologize and explain the violation,
3. have each party negotiate expectations for
one another and agree to the terms,
4. establish evaluation procedures that can be
agreed upon by both parties, and
5. helping parties to establish alternative ways
to get needs met
“The ability to establish, grow,
extend, and restore trust is the
key leadership competency of
the new economy”
Stephen M. R. Covey
Myth busters
• What do you think about the following? Are
they correct?
• TRUSTING PEOPLE IS TOO RISKY
NOT TRUSTING PEOPLE IS A GREATER RISK.
Managers & Trust
• TRUST + CONTROL = C (constant)
• Delegation = More Trust, Less Control
• Micromanagement = Less Trust, More Control
• Trust breeds responsibility
• But also risky
– Superior is held accountable
– Can be abused
– Can leave superior feeling naked and lonely
Managers & Trust
Delegation
• Implies confidence in subordinate
• Trust is reciprocal
– Give trust then check and withdraw if necessary
• Fragile – once shattered, is very hard to
rebuild
• Superior must initiate trust process
– Long acquaintance often leads to trust
What makes people
trust websites?
Perception
Consistency
Learnability
User
Guidance
Navigation
Trustworthiness
• trust in any object can be measured by the
willingness of visitors to interact with it in
some way
– believing the information presented, or
– acting on it
• trust goes with awareness level, word of
mouth, reputation, image, referrals, and track
record
• when trust increases, so do those other
concepts
Trust on the Web
• Thus your trust in a web page will be
influenced by your trust in…
– other pages you’ve seen on that site
– other sites that you regard as related – including
links from that site
– anything else you know about the organization
that owns the site
– the entire Web
– your credit card provider (if you’re being offered
an online transaction)
Trust is Contagious
• If you start from a position of ignorance
– You will probably trust opinion of experts
– If you start using it, you will start constructing
your own experience
• trust can be encouraged by creating a chain
(or maybe more of a cloud) of favourable
associations
Starting Out
• A visitor need not trust a site in every way, in
order to use it
• I have zero trust in my bank to act in my best
interests, but I trust its website enough to do
online transfers between accounts – because
I’ve done this many times, and never had a
problem.
Trust & Websites
• it can never be certain
• You have to “trust” a bit, and whether you do
that will depend on experiences and
recommendations
• Simply saying “trust us” may have the
opposite effect from what you want – if other
indicators of trust aren’t looking good to the
visitor.
Trust is not 100%
rational
• Details of the organization that owns the site
• Lack of obvious mistakes, such as errors in
spelling and in well-known facts
• External certification – well known and
selective directories that link to the site
• A respectable top-level domain – some URLs
are notorious
• If an organization has a well-known presence
beyond the web, that greatly affects visitors’
views of its website
Increasing Trust
• If you’re selling products online, you need to
give plenty of details. Pictures, size, weight,
price, country of manufacture, shipping costs,
returns policy – everything a customer might
want to know.
• For financial transactions, it’s important to use
secure servers
• Putting the author’s name on a web page, which
makes it less impersonal.
• Visitors need to be able to contact you easily.
Use an online response form.
Trust & Websites
• If your industry is one that’s widely
distrusted, you’ll need to make it very clear
how your organization is different from most
• So try some FAQ pages, directly addressing
trust-related issues
• Moving beyond trust, to reputation: one tiny
slip can create enough distrust to overcome a
lot of hard work
Trust & Websites
• Your organisation made a BIG mistake
• They told people there would be no layoffs,
then they laid off 200 people
• The employees distrust management now
• How should they rebuild trust?
– Productivity is down
– People are not applying for positions
Activity
Trust in the Digital Sphere
• People may be too trusting online
• They might also avoid all online activity due
to lack of trust
• They need some knowledge
• The digital world is DIFFERENT
• Reputation systems help (eBay)
Phishing
• If I get phished by an RBS site, does that
impact on my trust in the *real* RBS site?
• If I get phished does that impact on my trust
on online services in general?
Truster & Trustee
Trust & Risk
• No risk no need to trust
– Eg will you keep my seat for me?
• High risk, need for high trust
– Will you take care of my video camera?
• Hence I trust you this much, to do this thing
• People are more willing to trust a site if risk is
low
– Advice about finance less likely to be taken even
when the companies were well known
E-Commerce Customers
• Have to trust
– People behind the site
• Brand, loyalty, friendliness
– Technology
• Encryption, data security, etc
• Riegelsberger and Sasse – risks
– Credit card data being intercepted
– Transmission of data
– Customer usage being correct
E-Commerce Risks
• Riegelsberger and Sasse risks related to
physical absence of retailer
– Will personal details be kept confidential?
– Will products be delivered?
• How do people make up their minds?
– facilities match their needs
– whether the site has a professional look and feel
– the extent to which the exchange seems
predictable or familiar
Trusting Websites
• users are prepared to cast care to the wind
and commit sensitive details to any site
provided that the object of desire is
compelling enough
Kathy Dudek, Pamela Briggs and Gitte
Lindegaard, “Small Objects of Desire and Their
Impact on Trust in E-Commerce,” (in
preparation).
Strategies
• Heuristic strategy: people base decisions on
only the most obvious or apparent
information
– Pressured/no capacity to think about things
– Low involvement
• Systematic strategy: detailed processing of
message content
– High involvement
– Importance of task
Experts/Novices
• Experts
– highly influenced by factors such as reputation,
information quality and source, and perceived
motive
• Man/Woman in the street
– attractiveness of site design
Effects of Time – Phases
• a phase of initial trust
– Affected by attractiveness
• followed by a more protracted exchange
• (maybe) longer-term trusting relationship
Eggers
• Ability
– Can trustee fulfill promise
• Integrity
– Does he deliver?
• Benevolence
– Acting in another’s interests?
• First, developers can learn that trust concepts can be operationalized into
specific attributes or questions that can be examined in research and
designs.
• Second, one of the key findings is that trust seems to be related be beliefs
about another’s ability, integrity, and benevolence.
• Third, trust and risk are related concepts, and factors that reduce risk
perceptions, such as reducing uncertainty, can be beneficial for increasing
trust or decreasing the need for trust.
• Fourth, ease-of-use characteristics, such as the ease of finding information
and completing transactions, can affect trust.
• Fifth, external factors or context that may seem to be unrelated to the
situation can affect trust, such as the characteristics of the truster and the
type of risk involved in the transaction.
• Finally, trust probably develops in stages. In the first stage, superficial
interface properties, such as colors and designs, can have a large effect on
initial trust decisions. Later, users may make trust decisions based on more
reasoned analysis of information. Eventually, long-term trust decisions are
based on direct experience and personal service.
Trust Guidelines
1. Ensure good ease of use.
2. Use attractive design.
3. Create a professional image—avoiding
spelling mistakes and other simple errors.
4. Don’t mix advertising and content—avoid
sales pitches and banner adverts.
5. Convey a ‘real world’ look and feel, for
example with the use of high quality
photographs of real places and people.
Trust Guidelines
6. Maximise the consistency, familiarity, or predictability
of an interaction both in terms of
process and visually.
7. Include seals of approval such as TRUSTe.
8. Provide explanations, justifying the advice or
information given.
9. Include independent peer evaluation such as references
from past and current users and
independent message boards.
10. Provide clearly stated security and privacy statements,
and also rights to compensation and returns.
Trust Guidelines
11. Include alternative views, including good
links to independent sites within the same
business area.
12. Include background information such as
indicators of expertise and patterns of past
performance.
13. Clearly assign responsibilities (to the vendor
and the customer).
Trust Guidelines
14. Ensure that communication remains open
and responsive and offer order tracking or
alternative means of getting in touch.
15. Offer a personalized service which takes
account of each client’s needs and preferences
and reflects their social identity.
High Trust Organizations
• Experience ½ the average turnover of industry
peers
• Higher productivity and profitability
• More qualified candidates for open positions
• Higher levels of customer satisfaction and
loyalty
• More adaptive organizational structures
• Constructive strategic alliances
• Responsive virtual teams
• Effective crisis management
• Reduced transaction and litigation costs
Next Activity
• You are creating a website to sell all inclusive
holidays
• A lot of fake websites have been selling
people non-existent holidays
• Draw a wireframe showing what components
you would include in your home page to
maximise trust
• Group them in terms of the FOUR aspects of
usability to engender trust: navigation,
learnability, user guidance and perception.
Usability Aspects to Engender Trust
• Navigation
• Learnability
• User Guidance
• Perception
1
2
3
4
4 5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
Spotting Fakes
• Common sense
• Check for HTTPS
• Examine URL (& make sure it matches the
one you typed)
• Check destination of links before clicking
• Do a reality check
• Be suspicious
• Lots of American terminology used
• Their website domain is also registered
through an American (in the main)
registrars and was only created on
12May
• Registered with DomainsByProxy.com,
which is a company set up to hide the
web site owner from it’s users
• No Reviews
Adding Faces to Web Pages
• Makes people trust the
website more
• increase in conversion rate
of more than 95% in one
evaluation
• Photos should be “real”.
Visitors can tell when you
are using stock photos