程序代写代做代考 scheme data mining algorithm x86 database decision tree Bayesian Slide 1

Slide 1

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Overview of Machine Learning: Algorithms and Applications
Nathalie Japkowicz
School of Information Technology and Engineering
University of Ottawa

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Overview I

Machine Learning and Data Mining include a large number of are general-purpose methods that have been applied with great success to a many domains, including mechanical diagnosis, satellite image screening, credit-card fraud detection, medical diagnosis, marketing, loan application screening, electric load forecasting, and so on.

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Overview II
These approaches rely on different technologies including:
Decision Trees, Neural Networks, Bayesian Learning
Instance-Based Learning (e.g., k- Nearest Neighbours)
Rule Induction
Clustering / Unsupervised Learning
Support Vector Machines, etc.
The more advanced approaches combine the above techniques using sophisticated combination schemes such as:
Bagging, Boosting, Stacking
Random Forests, etc.

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Overview III
In addition to designing algorithms, researchers in the field have been concerned with issues surrounding these algorithms, such as:
Feature Selection / Feature Construction
Missing / Unreliable Attributes
Cost-Sensitive learning
Distributional Skewness (the Class Imbalance Problem)
Learning from massive Data Sets
Data Visualization
Evaluation in Machine learning
Incorporating Domain Knowledge, etc.

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Purpose of the Lecture

To present an overview of some of these techniques.

To demonstrate, through a few examples, their applicability to a large range of security domains.

To illustrate what research in Machine Learning tries to achieve and how it does so.

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Preliminaries

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Useful Reference – Demo
For a quick introduction to the field and a quick assessment of its usefulness to you, you can download a free software toolbox that implements the major machine learning algorithms:

WEKA
http://www.cs.waikato.ac.nz/ml/weka/

Accompanying text book:

Data Mining: Practical Machine Learning Tools and Techniques, by Ian Witten and Eibe Frank, Morgan Kaufmann, 2005.

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Organization of the Talk
Definition of Machine Learning: Supervised/Unsupervised Learning
Why Machine Learning?
A Taxonomy of Machine Learning Methods
Two Instances of Machine Learning Algorithms: Decision Trees, Neural Networks
Two instances of Combination Schemes: Bagging, Boosting
Three Applications:
Event Characterization for Radioxenon Monitoring
Detection of Helicopter Gearbox failures
Discrimination between Earthquakes and Nuclear Explosions.
Network Security

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Supervised Learning: Definition
Given a sequence of input/output pairs of the form , where xi is a possible input, and yi is the output associated with xi:
Learn a function f such that:
f(xi)=yi for all i’s,
f makes a good guess for the outputs of inputs that it has not previously seen.

[If f has only 2 possible outputs, f is called a concept and learning is called concept-learning.]

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Supervised Learning: Example
Goal: Learn how to predict whether a new patient with
a given set of symptoms does or does not have the flu.
Patient Attributes Class
Temperature Cough Sore Throat Sinus Pain

1 37 yes no no no flu
2 39 no yes yes flu
3 38.4 no no no no flu
4 36.8 no yes no no flu
5 38.5 yes no yes flu
6 39.2 no no yes flu

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Unsupervised Learning: Definition
While Supervised Learning considers the input/output pairs of the form , Unsupervised Learning focuses on the input only: xi. It has no knowledge of the output, yi.
Unsupervised Learning attempts to group together (or cluster) similar xis.
Different similarity measures can be used as well as different strategies for building the clusters.

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Unsupervised Learning: An Example
Fitting a Mixture of Gaussians
Feature A
F
e
a
t
u
r
e

B

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Why Machine Learning?

Machine Learning Systems learn from data samples of solved cases.
They do not require any expert knowledge, since they infer such knowledge directly from the data.
They are useful in professional fields in which expertise is scarce and the codification of knowledge is limited.
They are useful in domains where good tests and measurements are available, but methods of applying this information is insufficiently understood or systematized.
They are useful in domains in which the information needs to be constantly updated, in order to maintain the system in routine use at high levels of performance

[From Computer Systems that Learn, Weiss & Kulikowski, Morgan Kaufmann, 1990]

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A Taxonomy of Machine Learning Techniques: Highlight on Important Approaches

Supervised Unsupervised

Linear Nonlinear

Single Combined

Easy to Interpret Hard to Interpret

Linear
Regression

Logistic
Regression

Perceptron

Bagging Boosting Random
Forests
Decision Rule
Trees Learning

Naïve k-Nearest
Bayes Neighbours

Multi-Layer SVM
Perceptron

K-Means EM Self-Organizing
Maps

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Description of
Two Common Classifiers:
– Decision Trees
– Neural Networks

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Decision Trees: A transparent Approach

Temperature
Cough Sore Throat
Medium
Low
High
Yes
No
Yes
No

A Decision Tree for the Flu Concept

Flu
No Flu
No Flu
Flu
No Flu

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Construction of Decision Trees I

What is the most
informative attribute?

Assume: Temperature

D13

D12

D11

D10

D9

D4

D7

D5

D3

D14

D8

D6

D2

D1

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Construction of Decision Trees II
Assume:

D13

D12

D11

D10

D9

D4

D7

D5

D3

D14

D8

D6

D2

D1
Temperature

Medium
Low

High

What are the
most informative
attributes?

Cough and Sore Throat

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Construction of Decision Trees III
The informativeness of an attribute is an information-theoretic measure that corresponds to the attribute that produces the purest children nodes.
This is done by minimizing the measure of entropy in the trees that the attribute split generates.
The entropy and information are linked in the following way: The more there is entropy in a set S, the more information is necessary in order to guess correctly an element of this set.
Info[x,y] = Entropy[x,y] = – x/(x+y) log x/(x+y)

– y/(x+y) log y/(x+y)

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Construction of Decision Trees IV
Info[2,3] = .971 bits
Info[4,0]= 0 bits
Info[3,2]= .971 bits

Avg Tree Info = 5/14 *.971
+ 4/14 * 0 + 5/14 * .971
= .693
Prior Info[9,5] = .940
 Gain = .940 – .693 = .247
Info[2,6]= .811
Info[3,3]= 1

Avg Tree Info = 8/14 +.811
+ 6/14 * 1 = .892
Prior Info[9,5] = .940
 Gain = .940 – .892 = .048

Medium
Low

High

Temperature

Sore Throat
No
Yes

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Multi-Layer Perceptrons:
An Opaque Approach
Autoassociation

Heteroassociation

Examples:
Input Units

Hidden Units

Output units

weights

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Representation in a Multi-Layer Perceptron
hj=g(wji.xi)
yk=g(wkj.hj)

where g(x)= 1/(1+e )
Typically, y1=1 for positive example
and y1=0 for negative example
-x
i
j

x1 x2 x3 x4 x5 x6
h1 h2 h3
y1
k

j

i

wji’s
wkj’s

g (sigmoid):
0
1/2
0
1

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Learning in a Multi-Layer Perceptron I
Learning consists of searching through the space of all possible matrices of weight values for a combination of weights that satisfies a database of positive and negative examples (multi-class as well as regression problems are possible).
It is an optimization problem which tries to minimize the sum of square error:
E= 1/2 n=1 k=1[yk-fk(x )]
where N is the total number of training examples and K, the total number of output units (useful for multiclass problems) and fk is the function implemented by the neural net
N
K

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Learning in a Multi-Layer Perceptron II

The optimization problem is solved by searching the space of possible solutions by gradient.
This consists of taking small steps in the direction that minimize the gradient (or derivative) of the error of the function we are trying to learn.
When the gradient is zero we have reached a local minimum that we hope is also the global minimum.

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Description of Two classifier combination Schemes:

– Bagging
– Boosting

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Combining Multiple Models
The idea is the following: In order to make the outcome of automated classification more reliable, it may be a good idea to combine the decisions of several single classifiers through some sort of voting scheme
Bagging and Boosting are the two most used combination schemes and they usually yield much improved results over the results of single classifiers
One disadvantage of these multiple model combinations is that, as in the case of neural Networks, the learned model is hard, if not impossible, to interpret.

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Bagging: Bootstrap Aggregating

Idea: perturb the composition of the data sets from which the
classifier is trained. Learn a classifier from each different data
set. Let these classifiers vote.  This procedure reduces the
portion of the performance error caused by variance in the
training set.
Bagging
Algorithm

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Boosting
Boosting
Algorithm
Idea: To build models that complement each other. A first classifier
is built. Its errors are given a higher weight than its right answers
so that the next classifier being built focuses on these errors, etc…
Decrease the
weight of
the right
answers 
Increase the
weight of
errors

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Machine Learning
Applications

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Application I: Event Characterization for Radioxenon Monitoring
It has been shown that methods currently used for particulate monitoring to identify anomalous radionuclide observations, possibly indicative of a nuclear explosion, are not suitable for radioxenon monitoring.
Unlike particulate monitoring, there is a ubiquitous radioxenon background.
Distinguishing radioxenon of a nuclear explosion origin from routine anthropogenic radioxenon releases is problematic.
The goal of these preliminary experiments is to verify whether machine learning techniques can be useful for such a task.

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Application I: Event Characterization for Radioxenon Monitoring
We were given three datasets from the Radiation Protection Bureau branch of Health Canada.
The first data set describes the background concentration of Xenon isotopes, i.e., Xe-131m, Xe-133, Xe-133m, and Xe-135, in Ottawa, under normal conditions.
The second data set describes the concentration levels of these Xenon isotopes that would be seen in Ottawa if a 90mBq/m3 explosion had taken place and 7 days had elapsed.
The third data set describes the concentration levels of these Xenon isotopes that would be seen in Ottawa if a 1mBq/m3 explosion had taken place and 7 days had elapsed.

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Application I: Event Characterization for Radioxenon Monitoring
We applied the following classifiers to this problem:
Decision Trees (J48)
Multi-layer Perceptrons (MLP)
Naive Bayes (NB)
Support Vector Machine (SVM), and
Nearest Neighbours (kNN)

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Application I: Event Characterization for Radioxenon Monitoring
Results in the 90 mBq/m3 case
The problem is quite easy:
Simple classifiers: Decision Trees, Naïve Bayes and
k-Nearest Neighbours obtain good results

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Application I: Event Characterization for Radioxenon Monitoring
Results in the 1 mBq/m3 case
The problem does not seem solvable:
Further research on Feature Selection techniques, including our own method boosted accuracy only by 4%.

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Application I: Event Characterization for Radioxenon Monitoring
Machine Learning is useful in this application as its techniques can help us simulate a realistic data set of radioxenon observations arising from nuclear explosions.
Such a database would be composed of data of real routine anthropogenic radioxenon observations plus information known of radioxenon released from past nuclear weapons tests.
The data thus generated would be used to determine the best path of research into event characterization methods for the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty Organization.

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Application II: Helicopter Gearbox Monitoring
Practical Motivation: Detect CH-46 Helicopter Gearboxes failures on flight, in order to land on time to avoid a crash.
Approach: Discriminate between the vibration pattern of Healthy and Damaged CH-46 Helicopter Gearboxes, by learning how to recognize healthy gearboxes.
The data was provided by the U.S. Navy. It had the particularity of containing many instances of healthy gearboxes and few instances of damaged ones. (The class imbalance problem)  We devised a single-class classification scheme.

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Application II: Helicopter Gearbox Monitoring
Idea (with M. Gluck and C. Myers)

RMLP

A5
A2 A7
+ A5 – – +

+ –

T
F
> 5
5
< 5 T F F T Decision Tree (C5.0) DMLP * Application II: Helicopter Gearbox Monitoring Results (errors) Percent error * Application III: Nuclear Explosions versus Earthquakes Practical Motivation: To ensure that the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty is globally respected. Approach: To monitor vibration patterns in the ground. World-wide Earthquakes and Nuclear explosions can be detected locally. Apply Machine Learning Technique to discriminate between the two different kinds of signals. Challenge: Earthquakes and Nuclear explosions have similar patterns. Very sensitive learning techniques must be designed for the task. There are very few instances of nuclear explosions (only very few weapons’ tests)  Huge class imbalance Data Source Little Skull Mountain Earthquakes + Large aftershocks (29/06/92) Lawrence Livermore Labs Testing site for Nuclear explosions (1978 to 1992) * Application III: Nuclear Explosions versus Earthquakes Idea (with Todd Eavis): -1.9 -1.4 -1.2 -1.7 -1.3 -1.6 1.2 1.3 1.6 1.1 1.5 1.2 Note: the original idea did not show very good discrimination effects, so We exaggerated the difference between Pos and Neg data by adding +1 toeach node in the case of a positive example and -1 to each node in the case of a negative example. XMLP .2 .3 .6 .1 .5 .2 Pos .9 .4 .2 .7 .3 .6 Neg -.9 -.4 -.2 -.7 -.3 -.6 .2 .3 .6 .1 .5 .2 * Application III: Nuclear Explosions versus Earthquakes Results (errors) Negative Samples MLP XMLP 1 42.1% 37.8% 2 33.6% 29.4% 5 19.9% 17.8% 10 14.7% 18.8% * Application IV: Network Event Correlation Practical Motivation: Computer Networks are more and more often attacked. Intrusion Detection Systems are capable of detecting attacks. However, they issue a very large number of false alarms. We want to learn how to correlate similar types of attacks in order to allow a human operator to process groups of alarms together rather than individual alarms one by one. Idea: (with M. Dondo and R. Smith) Use RMLP as a soft-clustering system in order to suggest potential groupings. * Colours = alerts r e c o n s t r u c t i o n e r r o r Self-contained cluster of related alerts Results Application IV: Network Event Correlation 3.1 3.15 3.2 3.25 3.3 3.35 3.4 3.45 3.5 2 2 23 12 3 6 1 1 1 1 Types of Alerts : http_inspect : Shellcode X86 Noop : http_inspect : http_inspect : Scan Squid Proxy attempt Same alert  Connections Same alert Same connection But 15 sec. later Same as cluster 3 But  TOS value Same as cluster 4, but occurs 6 hours earlier Isolated alert Same alert except for IP ID attribute * Conclusions Machine Learning has proven useful in many areas. There are free tools available on the Web that are easy to use and that do not require much prior knowledge of Machine Learning. The most notable/used suite of tools is called WEKA, http://www.cs.waikato.ac.nz/ml/weka/ There is a lot of ongoing research in Machine Learning that develops new approaches for different types of data challenges. Researchers in Machine learning/Data mining (including myself!) generally welcome the opportunity to try their ideas on new kinds of data sets. Collaborations can benefit both the machine learning and applied communities. 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 Helicop.PromotersSonars RMLP DMLP C4.5