ETW3420 Principles of Forecasting and Applications
Principles of Forecasting and Applications
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Topic 4 Pre-tutorial Activity
In this pre-tutorial activity, you will:
(i) Understand how moving averages are calculated using Excel
(ii) Use Excel Solver to estimate weights for a weighted moving average
Before attempting the following question, please watch the following video to learn
how to calculate Simple Moving Averages in Excel: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=
-LLpQcVSeoQ
Question 1
Use the data in the worksheet “Retail” in the Excel file for this question.
(a) Plot a time series of the data.
(b) Do you observe any trend, cyclical or seasonal component in the data?
(c) Produce one-step-ahead forecasts for the data using a k-SMA, with k = 1, 4 and 6.
(d) Calculate and report the RMSE for each value of k.
(e) Determine the optimal value of k. (i.e. the value of k that returns the lowest RMSE).
(f) Using the optimal value of k chosen from (e), modify the method by using a weighted
moving average and use Solver to estimate the weights. Comment on the magnitude
of the weights. What is the in-sample RMSE?
Question 1
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