Business Forecasting Analytics ADM 4307 – Fall 2021
Introduction to Course , PhD
13 September, 2021
Some of the slides are adapted from the lecture notes provided by Prof. and Prof.
Copyright By PowCoder代写 加微信 powcoder
Contact Details
• Lecturer
• Office: Room 7116, Desmarais Building
• Office Hours: Only by appointment (Virtual)
• Teaching Assistant
• Abtahi
• In all e-mail communications, please include “ADM 4307” in the subject line, and your name and student number in the body of your message
Fall 2021 ADM 4307 Business Forecasting Analytics 2
• Education
• BSc in Computer Engineering
• MSc and PhD in Industrial Engineering (Operations Research)
• Postdoc in Operations Research
• Senior Lead Data Scientist (SITA)
• Part-Time Professor (UOttawa, McGill, Carleton)
• Business Intelligence Tech. & Big Data Analytics
• Business Data Mining
• Business Forecasting Analytics
• Operations Management
• Information Systems
• Applications of Statistical Methods in Business
• 15+ years of experience in various advanced analytics positions
Fall 2021 ADM 4307 Business Forecasting Analytics 3
Course Learning Objectives
• To obtain an understanding of common statistical methods used in business and economic forecasting
• To develop the computer skills required to forecast business and economic time series data
• To gain insights into the problems of implementing and operating large scale forecasting systems for use in business
Fall 2021 ADM 4307 Business Forecasting Analytics 4
Course Deliverables and Assessment
• Three assignments,
• One project and one contest, • Final exam (3 hours duration)
Course Deliverable
Weight on Final Grade
3 Assignments (group work)
Oct. 04, Oct. 18, Nov. 01
30% (10% each)
Forecasting Project (group work)
Forecasting Contest (group work)
Final Exam
Official final exam period
• Need at least 50% for final exam and 50% for total.
Fall 2021 ADM 4307 Business Forecasting Analytics 5
Teaching Approach
• Lectures:
• Online (Zoom)
• Mondays 19:00 – 21:50
• Lectures notes, recordings and additional course materials will be posted on Brightspace course website
• Office hours:
• Virtual (Zoom)
• Only by appointment
Fall 2021 ADM 4307 Business Forecasting Analytics 6
Brightspace Course Website
• Includes all lecture notes, handouts, datasets, assignments, project and practical questions.
• Discussionforumforaskingquestions
• Lecture recordings and Zoom meeting links
• Assignmentandprojectsubmissions
Fall 2021 ADM 4307 Business Forecasting Analytics 7
Weekly Schedule
Time Series Graphics The Forecaster’s Toolbox
Chapter 2, 5
Chapter 10, 12, 13
1 Course Outline Chapter 1 Introduction to Forecasting and R
3 Time Series Decomposition Chapter 3, 4 Time Series Features
4 Exponential Smoothing Models
6-8 Forecasting with ARIMA Models
9-10 Regression Models for Forecasting
11 Judgmental Forecasts
Dynamic Regression Models
12 Advanced Forecasting Methods
Some Practical Forecasting Issues
13-14 Project Presentations
ADM 4307 Business Forecasting Analytics 8
• Hyndman, R.J., & Athanasopoulos, G. (2021) Forecasting: Principles and Practice, 3rd edition. (https://otexts.com/fpp3).
• Free and online
• Data sets in associated R packages
• R code for examples
• Print version of the book is available from Amazon
Fall 2021 ADM 4307 Business Forecasting Analytics 9
Software Package
• Students will be expected to use RStudio software in class as well as for assignments and projects.
• Install required packages
• install.packages(c(“tidyverse”, “fpp3”))
Fall 2021 ADM 4307 Business Forecasting Analytics 10
Recommended Courses on DataCamp & Coursera
All courses are free and highly recommended.
Fall 2021 ADM 4307 Business Forecasting Analytics 11
What Do I Expect From You?
• Keep on top of the material • Attendance
• Read the textbook
• Office hours – don’t wait till the project due date and final exam
• Ask questions!
• I can’t help you if I don’t know you are struggling
• Familiarize yourself with R Studio
Fall 2021 ADM 4307 Business Forecasting Analytics 12
A Note on Academic Fraud
• Sharing completed or even partially completed assignments constitutes fraud
• You can work together on assignments but everyone must hand in their own work
• Talk, work together but do not share documents that you have worked on with anyone
• Having an electronic device (i.e., cell phone) on your person during an exam is fraud
Fall 2021 ADM 4307 Business Forecasting Analytics 13
Before we start…
Fall 2021 ADM 4307 Business Forecasting Analytics 14
程序代写 CS代考 加微信: powcoder QQ: 1823890830 Email: powcoder@163.com