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Mankiw 6e PowerPoints

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II
This is a very substantial chapter, and among the most challenging in the text. I encourage you to go over this chapter a little more slowly than average, or at least recommend to your students that they study it extra carefully.
I have included a number of in-class exercises to give students immediate reinforcement of concepts as they are covered, and also to break up the lecture. If you need to get through the material more quickly, you can omit some or all of these exercises (perhaps assigning them as homeworks, instead).
To complement the book’s case study on the 2008-2009 financial crisis and recession, these slides include lots of data for you to show and discuss with your students. Your students will need to read the Case Study in their textbooks, preferably before you present this data. My hope is that the data will help bring the theory to life, and convey to students the excitement of studying macroeconomics in the current era.

Context
Chapter 10 introduced the model of aggregate demand and supply.
Chapter 11 developed the IS-LM model,
the basis of the aggregate demand curve.

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II

If you wish, delete this slide and give students this information orally.

IN THIS CHAPTER, YOU WILL LEARN:
how to use the IS-LM model to analyze the effects of shocks, fiscal policy, and monetary policy
how to derive the aggregate demand curve from the IS-LM model
several theories about what caused the
Great Depression

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II

The intersection determines
the unique combination of Y and r
that satisfies equilibrium in both markets.
The LM curve represents money market equilibrium.
Equilibrium in the IS -LM model
The IS curve represents equilibrium in the goods market.

Y
r

r1
Y1

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II

Review/recap of the very end of Chapter 11.

Policy analysis with the IS -LM model
We can use the IS-LM model to analyze the effects of
fiscal policy: G and/or T
monetary policy: M

Y
r

r1
Y1

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II

causing output & income to rise.

IS1
An increase in government purchases
1. IS curve shifts right

Y
r

r1
Y1

IS2

2. This raises money demand, causing the interest rate to rise…

2.
3. …which reduces investment, so the final increase in Y

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II

Chapter 11 showed that an increase in G causes the IS curve to shift to the right by (ΔG)/(1-MPC).

IS1

1.
A tax cut

Y
r

r1
Y1

IS2

Consumers save (1−MPC) of the tax cut, so the initial boost in spending is smaller for ΔT than for an equal ΔG…
and the IS curve shifts by

2.
…so the effects on r
and Y are smaller for ΔT than for an equal ΔG.

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II

Chapter 11 used the Keynesian Cross to show that a decrease in T causes the IS curve to shift to the right by (-MPCΔT)/(1-MPC).
If your students ask why the IS curve shifts to the right when there’s a negative sign in the expression for the shift, remind them that ΔT < 0 for a tax cut, so the expression actually is positive. The term showing the distance of the shift in the IS curve is almost the same as in the case of a government spending increase, where the numerator of the fraction equals (1) for government spending rather than (-MPC) for the tax cut. Here’s the intuition: Every dollar of a government spending increase adds to aggregate spending. However, for tax cuts, the fraction (1-MPC) of the tax cut leaks into saving, so aggregate spending only rises by MPC times the tax cut. 2. …causing the interest rate to fall IS Monetary policy: An increase in M 1. ΔM > 0 shifts
the LM curve down
(or to the right)

Y
r

LM1

r1
Y1

LM2
3. …which increases investment, causing output & income to rise.

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II

Chapter 11 showed that an increase in M shifts the LM curve to the right.

Here is a richer explanation for the LM shift:

The increase in M causes the interest rate to fall. [People like to keep optimal proportions of money and bonds in their portfolios; if money is increased, then people try to re-attain their optimal proportions by “exchanging” some of the money for bonds: they use some of the extra money to buy bonds. This increase in the demand for bonds drives up the price of bonds — and causes interest rates to fall (since interest rates are inversely related to bond prices).

The fall in the interest rate induces an increase in investment demand, which causes output and income to increase.

The increase in income causes money demand to increase, which increases the interest rate (though doesn’t increase it all the way back to its initial value; instead, this effect simply reduces the total decrease in the interest rate).

Interaction between
monetary & fiscal policy
Model:
Monetary & fiscal policy variables
(M, G, and T ) are exogenous.
Real world:
Monetary policymakers may adjust M
in response to changes in fiscal policy,
or vice versa.
Such interactions may alter the impact of the original policy change.

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II

The Fed’s response to ΔG > 0
Suppose Congress increases G.
Possible Fed responses:
1. hold M constant
2. hold r constant
3. hold Y constant
In each case, the effects of the ΔG
are different…

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II

If Congress raises G,
the IS curve shifts right.

IS1
Response 1: Hold M constant

Y
r

LM1

r1
Y1

IS2

r2
If Fed holds M constant, then LM curve doesn’t shift.
Results:

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II

If Congress raises G,
the IS curve shifts right.

IS1
Response 2: Hold r constant

Y
r

LM1

IS2

r2
To keep r constant, Fed increases M
to shift LM curve right.

LM2

Results:

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II

IS1
Response 3: Hold Y constant

Y
r

LM1

IS2

r2
To keep Y constant, Fed reduces M
to shift LM curve left.

LM2
Results:

If Congress raises G,
the IS curve shifts right.

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II

Shocks in the IS -LM model
IS shocks: exogenous changes in the demand for goods & services.
Examples:
stock market boom or crash
g change in households’ wealth
g ΔC
change in business or consumer
confidence or expectations
g ΔI and/or ΔC

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II

Shocks in the IS -LM model
LM shocks: exogenous changes in the demand for money.
Examples:
A wave of credit card fraud increases demand for money.
More ATMs or the Internet reduce money demand.

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II

NOW YOU TRY
Analyze shocks with the IS-LM model
Use the IS-LM model to analyze the effects of
1. a housing market crash that reduces
consumers’ wealth
2. consumers using cash in transactions more frequently in response to an increase in identity theft
For each shock,
a. use the IS-LM diagram to determine the effects
on Y and r.
b. figure out what happens to C, I, and the unemployment rate.

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II
Earlier slides showed how to use the IS-LM model to analyze fiscal and monetary policy. Now is a good time for students to get some hands-on practice with the model. Also, note that part (b) helps students learn that shocks and policies can potentially affect all of the model’s endogenous variables, not just the ones that are measured on the axes.

Suggestion: Instead of having students work on these exercises individually, get them into pairs. One student of each pair works on the first shock, the other student works on the second shock. Give them 5 minutes to work individually on the analysis of the shock. Then, allow 10 minutes (5 for each student) for students to present their results to their partners. This activity gives students immediate application and reinforcement of the concepts, so students learn them better and will then better understand and appreciate the remainder of this chapter.

ANSWERS, PART 1
Housing market crash

IS1

Y
r

LM1

r1
Y1

IS2

IS shifts left, causing
r and Y to fall.

C falls due to lower wealth and lower income,
I rises because
r is lower
u rises because
Y is lower
(Okun’s law)

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II
1a. The IS curve shifts to the left, because consumers cut back on spending in response to the decrease in their wealth. This causes Y and r to fall.

1b. C falls for two reasons: the housing market crash, and the fall in income. In this simple model, I depends only on the interest rate, which falls, causing I to rise. u rises, because firms need less labor when they are producing less output (recall Okun’s Law).

ANSWERS, PART 2
Increase in money demand

IS1

Y
r

LM1

r1
Y1

LM2
LM shifts left, causing
r to rise and Y to fall.

C falls due to lower income,
I falls because
r is higher
u rises because
Y is lower
(Okun’s law)

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II
2a. (This is a continuation of the in-class exercise at the end of the PowerPoint presentation of Chapter 11.) The increase in money demand shifts the LM curve to the left: We are assuming that all other exogenous variables, including M and P, remain unchanged, so an increase in money demand causes an increase in the value of r associated with each value of Y (this can be seen easily using the Liquidity Preference diagram). This translates to an upward (i.e. leftward) shift in the LM curve. This shift causes Y to fall and r to rise.

2b. The fall in income causes a fall in C. The increase in r causes a fall in I. The fall in Y causes an increase in u.

CASE STUDY:
The U.S. recession of 2001
During 2001:
2.1 million jobs lost,
unemployment rose from 3.9% to 5.8%.
GDP growth slowed to 0.8%
(compared to 3.9% average annual growth during 1994–2000).

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II

CASE STUDY:
The U.S. recession of 2001
Causes: 1) Stock market decline g iC

300
600
900
1,200
1,500
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Index (1942 = 100)
Standard & Poor’s 500

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II

Starting in mid-2000, the S&P 500 begins a downward trend. The fall in stock prices eroded the wealth of millions of U.S. consumers. They responded by reducing consumption.

CASE STUDY:
The U.S. recession of 2001
Causes: 2) 9/11
increased uncertainty
fall in consumer & business confidence
result: lower spending, IS curve shifted left
Causes: 3) Corporate accounting scandals
Enron, WorldCom, etc.
reduced stock prices, discouraged investment

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II

CASE STUDY:
The U.S. recession of 2001
Fiscal policy response: shifted IS curve right
tax cuts in 2001 and 2003
spending increases
airline industry bailout
NYC reconstruction
Afghanistan war

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II

The war was a response to the 9/11 attacks, not to the recession. But wars involve significant fiscal policy expansion, which increases aggregate demand and alleviates or ends recessions.

CASE STUDY:
The U.S. recession of 2001
Monetary policy response: shifted LM curve right
Three-month T-Bill rate

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
01/01/2000
04/02/2000
07/03/2000
10/03/2000
01/03/2001
04/05/2001
07/06/2001
10/06/2001
01/06/2002
04/08/2002
07/09/2002
10/09/2002
01/09/2003
04/11/2003

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II

Easier monetary policy shifted the LM curve to the right, causing interest rates to fall, as shown in this graph.

What is the Fed’s policy instrument?
The news media commonly report the Fed’s policy changes as interest rate changes, as if the Fed has direct control over market interest rates.
In fact, the Fed targets the federal funds rate—the interest rate banks charge one another on overnight loans.
The Fed changes the money supply and shifts the LM curve to achieve its target.
Other short-term rates typically move with the federal funds rate.

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II

What is the Fed’s policy instrument?
Why does the Fed target interest rates instead of the money supply?
1) They are easier to measure than the money supply.
2) The Fed might believe that LM shocks are more prevalent than IS shocks. If so, then targeting the interest rate stabilizes income better than targeting the money supply.
(See problem 8 on p.364.)

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II

IS-LM and aggregate demand
So far, we’ve been using the IS-LM model to analyze the short run, when the price level is assumed fixed.
However, a change in P would shift LM and therefore affect Y.
The aggregate demand curve
(introduced in Chap. 10) captures this
relationship between P and Y.

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II

Y1
Y2
Deriving the AD curve

Y
r

Y
P

IS
LM(P1)

LM(P2)

P2
Y2
Y1

Intuition for slope
of AD curve:
hP g i(M/P )
g LM shifts left
g hr
g iI
g iY

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II

It might be useful to explain to students the reason why we draw P1 before drawing the LM curve:

The position of the LM curve depends on the value of M/P. M is an exogenous policy variable. So, if P is low (like P1 in the lower panel of the diagram), then M/P is relatively high, so the LM curve is over toward the right in the upper diagram. If P is high, like P2, then M/P is relatively low, so the LM curve is more toward the left.

Because the value of P affects the position of the LM curve, we label the LM curves in the upper panel as LM(P1) and LM(P2).

Monetary policy and the AD curve

Y
P

IS
LM(M2/P1)

LM(M1/P1)

AD1

Y1
Y1

Y2
Y2

r2
The Fed can increase aggregate demand:
hM g LM shifts right

AD2

Y
r
g ir
g hI
g hY at each value of P

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II

It’s worth taking a moment to explain why we are holding P fixed at P1:

To find out whether the AD curve shifts to the left or right, we need to find out what happens to the value of Y associated with any given value of P. This is not to say that the equilibrium value of P will remain fixed after the policy change (though, in fact, we are assuming P is fixed in the short run). We just want to see what happens to the AD curve.

Once we know how the AD curve shifts, we can then add the AS curves (short or long run) to find out what, if anything, happens to P (in the short- or long-run).

Y2
Y2

Y1
Y1

r1
Fiscal policy and the AD curve

Y
r

Y
P

IS1
LM

AD1

P1
Expansionary fiscal policy (hG and/or iT ) increases agg. demand:
iT g hC
g IS shifts right
g hY at each value of P

AD2

IS2

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II

IS-LM and AD-AS
in the short run & long run
Recall from Chapter 10: The force that moves the economy from the short run to the long run
is the gradual adjustment of prices.

rise
fall
remain constant
In the short-run equilibrium, if
then over time, the price level will

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II

The next few slides put our IS-LM-AD in the context of the bigger picture—the AD-AS model in the short run and long run, which was introduced in Chapter 10.

The SR and LR effects of an IS shock
A negative IS shock shifts IS and AD left, causing Y to fall.

Y
r

Y
P

LRAS

IS1

SRAS1
P1
LM(P1)

IS2

AD2
AD1

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II

Abbreviation:
SR = short run, LR = long run

The analysis that begins on this slide continues on the following slides.

The SR and LR effects of an IS shock

Y
r

Y
P

LRAS

IS1

SRAS1
P1
LM(P1)

IS2

AD2
AD1

In the new short-run equilibrium,

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II

The SR and LR effects of an IS shock

Y
r

Y
P

LRAS

IS1

SRAS1
P1
LM(P1)

IS2

AD2
AD1

In the new short-run equilibrium,

Over time, P gradually falls, causing:
SRAS to move down
M/P to increase, which causes LM
to move down

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II

AD2

The SR and LR effects of an IS shock

Y
r

Y
P

LRAS

IS1
SRAS1
P1
LM(P1)

IS2

AD1

SRAS2
P2

LM(P2)
Over time, P gradually falls, causing:
SRAS to move down
M/P to increase, which causes LM
to move down

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II

AD2

SRAS2
P2

LM(P2)
The SR and LR effects of an IS shock

Y
r

Y
P

LRAS

IS1
SRAS1
P1
LM(P1)

IS2
AD1
This process continues until economy reaches a long-run equilibrium with

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II

A good thing to do: Go back through this experiment again, and see if your students can figure out what is happening to the other endogenous variables (C, I, u) in the short run and long run.

NOW YOU TRY
Analyze SR & LR effects of ΔM

Draw the IS-LM and AD-AS diagrams as shown here.
Suppose Fed increases M. Show the short-run effects on your graphs.
Show what happens in the transition from the short run to the long run.
How do the new long-run equilibrium values of the endogenous variables compare to their initial values?

Y
r

Y
P

LRAS

SRAS1
P1
LM(M1/P1)

AD1

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II
This exercise has two objectives:

1. To give students immediate reinforcement of the preceding concepts.

2. To show them that money is neutral in the long run, just like in Chapter 5.

You might have your students try other exercises using this framework:

* the short-run and long-run effects of expansionary fiscal policy. Have them compare the long-run results in this framework with the results they obtained when doing the same experiment in Chapter 3 (the loanable funds model).

* Immediately after a negative shock pushes output below its natural rate, show how monetary or fiscal policy can be used to restore full-employment immediately (i.e., without waiting for prices to adjust).

ANSWERS, PART 1
Short-run effects of ΔM

LM and AD shift right.

r falls, Y rises above

Y
r

Y
P

LRAS

SRAS
P1
LM(M1/P1)

AD1

LM(M2/P1)

AD2

Y2
Y2

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II

ANSWERS, PART 2
Transition from short run to long run

Over time,
P rises
SRAS moves upward
M/P falls
LM moves leftward

New long-run eq’m
P higher
all real variables back at
their initial values
Money is neutral in the long run.

Y
r

Y
P

LRAS

SRAS
P1
LM(M1/P1)

AD1

LM(M2/P1)

AD2

Y2
Y2

r1
LM(M2/P3)

SRAS
P3

r3 =

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II

The Great Depression

Unemployment (right scale)

Real GNP
(left scale)

120
140
160
180
200
220
240
1929
1931
1933
1935
1937
1939
billions of 1958 dollars
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
percent of labor force

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II

This chart presents data from Table 12-1 on pp.352-353 of the text. For data sources, see the notes accompanying that table.

Things to note:

1. The magnitude of the fall in output and increase in unemployment. In 1933, the unemployment rate is over 25%!!

2. There’s a very strong negative correlation between output and unemployment.

THE SPENDING HYPOTHESIS:
Shocks to the IS curve
Asserts the Depression was largely due to
an exogenous fall in the demand for goods & services—a leftward shift of the IS curve.
Evidence:
output and interest rates both fell, which is what a leftward IS shift would cause.

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II

THE SPENDING HYPOTHESIS:
Reasons for the IS shift
Stock market crash reduced consumption
Oct 1929–Dec 1929: S&P 500 fell 17%
Oct 1929–Dec 1933: S&P 500 fell 71%
Drop in investment
Correction after overbuilding in the 1920s.
Widespread bank failures made it harder to obtain financing for investment.
Contractionary fiscal policy
Politicians raised tax rates and cut spending to combat increasing deficits.

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II

In item 2, I’m using the term correction in the stock market sense.

THE MONEY HYPOTHESIS:
A shock to the LM curve
Asserts that the Depression was largely due to huge fall in the money supply.
Evidence:
M1 fell 25% during 1929–33.
But, two problems with this hypothesis:
P fell even more, so M/P actually rose slightly during 1929–31.
nominal interest rates fell, which is the opposite of what a leftward LM shift would cause.

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II

THE MONEY HYPOTHESIS AGAIN:
The effects of falling prices
Asserts that the severity of the Depression was due to a huge deflation:
P fell 25% during 1929–33.
This deflation was probably caused by the fall in M, so perhaps money played an important role after all.
In what ways does a deflation affect the economy?

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II

THE MONEY HYPOTHESIS AGAIN:
The effects of falling prices
The stabilizing effects of deflation:
iP g h(M/P) g LM shifts right g hY
Pigou effect:
iP g h(M/P )
g consumers’ wealth h
g hC
g IS shifts right
g hY

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II

THE MONEY HYPOTHESIS AGAIN:
The effects of falling prices
The destabilizing effects of expected deflation:
iE π
g r h for each value of i
g I i because I = I (r )
g planned expenditure & agg. demand i
g income & output i

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II

The textbook (starting p.355) uses an “extended” IS-LM model, which includes both the nominal interest rate (measured on the vertical axis) and the real interest rate (which equals the nominal rate less expected inflation). Because money demand depends on the nominal rate, which is measured on the vertical axis, the change in expected inflation doesn’t shift the LM curve. However, investment depends on the real interest rate, so the fall in expected inflation shifts the IS curve: each value of i is now associated with a higher value of r, which reduces investment and shifts the IS curve to the left. Results: income falls, i falls, and r rises—which is exactly what happened from 1929 to 1931 (see Table 12-1 on pp.352-353).

This slide gives the basic intuition, which students often can grasp more quickly and easily than the graphical analysis. After you cover this material in your lecture, it will be easier for your students to grasp the analysis on pp.355-357.

THE MONEY HYPOTHESIS AGAIN:
The effects of falling prices
The destabilizing effects of unexpected deflation:
debt-deflation theory
iP (if unexpected)
g transfers purchasing power from borrowers to lenders
g borrowers spend less,
lenders spend more
g if borrowers’ propensity to spend is larger than lenders’, then aggregate spending falls,
the IS curve shifts left, and Y falls

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II

Why another Depression is unlikely
Policymakers (or their advisers) now know
much more about macroeconomics:
The Fed knows better than to let M fall
so much, especially during a contraction.
Fiscal policymakers know better than to raise taxes or cut spending during a contraction.
Federal deposit insurance makes widespread bank failures very unlikely.
Automatic stabilizers make fiscal policy expansionary during an economic downturn.

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II

Examples of automatic stabilizers:

* the income tax: people pay less taxes automatically if their income falls

* unemployment insurance: prevents income—and hence spending—from falling as much during a downturn

CASE STUDY
The 2008–09 financial crisis & recession
2009: Real GDP fell, u-rate approached 10%
Important factors in the crisis:
early 2000s Federal Reserve interest rate policy
subprime mortgage crisis
bursting of house price bubble,
rising foreclosure rates
falling stock prices
failing financial institutions
declining consumer confidence, drop in spending on consumer durables and investment goods

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II
The following slides are meant to complement rather than substitute for the Case Study appearing in the textbook. These slides contain a wealth of data on various aspects of the current economic crisis. My hope is that these slides will spark lively discussion in your class, as students develop a context for understanding key parts of the crisis and evaluate how the parts fit together (and fit with the textbook models).

Of course, the crisis is more complicated than can be captured by a few slides or a two-page case study in a textbook. I encourage you to assign your students additional readings, writing projects, or class presentations on the crisis. This is an exciting time to be learning macroeconomics!

Interest rates and house prices

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II
Setting the stage for the 2008-2009 economic crisis:

The recession of 2001 prompted the Federal Reserve to cut the Fed Funds rate steeply over the period 2001-2004. This is one explanation for the drop in mortgage rates that occurred over the same period. As these rates fell, housing prices rose, as shown here by the Case-Shiller 20-city composite index – a measure of average housing prices in 20 major U.S. real estate markets.

(Off-topic, possibly: Another explanation for the behavior of rates and house prices: a global savings glut from abroad flowed into the U.S.)

Sources:
House price index is from
http://www2.standardandpoors.com/portal/site/sp/en/us/page.topic/indices_csmahp/0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,1,0,0,0,0,0.html
or Google “Case Shiller Index”
Interest rate data is from FRED, the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis database, at http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/

Federal Funds rate 2000 2000.08333333333 2000.16666666667 2000.25 2000.33333333333 2000.41666666667 2000.5 2000.58333333333 2000.66666666667 2000.75 2000.83333333333 2000.91666666667 2001 2001.08333333333 2001.16666666667 2001.25 2001.33333333333 2001.41666666667 2001.5 2001.58333333333 2001.66666666667 2001.75 2001.83333333333 2001.91666666667 2002 2002.08333333333 2002.16666666667 2002.25 2002.33333333333 2002.41666666667 2002.5 2002.58333333333 2002.66666666667 2002.75 2002.83333333333 2002.91666666667 2003 2003.08333333333 2003.16666666667 2003.25 2003.33333333333 2003.41666666667 2003.5 2003.58333333333 2003.66666666666 2003.75 2003.83333333333 2003.91666666667 2004 2004.08333333333 2004.16666666666 2004.25 2004.33333333333 2004.41666666667 2004.5 2004.58333333333 2004.66666666666 2004.75 2004.83333333333 2004.91666666667 2004.99999999999 2005.08333333333 2005.16666666666 2005.24999999999 2005.33333333333 2005.41666666666 2005.49999999999 2005.58333333333 2005.66666666666 2005.74999999999 2005.83333333332 2005.91666666666 2005.99999999999 2006.08333333332 2006.16666666666 2006.24999999999 2006.33333333332 2006.41666666666 2006.49999999999 2006.58333333332 2006.66666666666 2006.74999999999 2006.83333333332 2006.91666666666 2006.99999999999 2007.08333333332 2007.16666666666 2007.24999999999 2007.33333333332 2007.41666666666 2007.49999999999 2007.58333333332 2007.66666666666 2007.74999999999 2007.83333333332 2007.91666666666 2007.99999999999 2008.08333333332 2008.16666666666 2008.24999999999 2008.33333333332 2008.41666666666 2008.49999999999 2008.58333333332 2008.66666666666 2008.74999999999 2008.83333333332 2008.91666666666 2008.99999999999 2009.08333333332 2009.16666666666 2009.24999999999 5.45 5.73 5.85 6.02 6.27 6.53 6.54 6.5 6.52 6.51 6.51 6.4 5.98 5.49 5.31 4.8 4.21 3.97 3.77 3.65 3.07 2.49 2.09 1.82 1.73 1.74 1.73 1.75 1.75 1.75 1.73 1.74 1.75 1.75 1.34 1.24 1.24 1.26 1.25 1.26 1.26 1.22 1.01 1.03 1.01 1.01 1 0.98 1 1.01 1 1 1 1.03 1.26 1.43 1.61 1.76 1.93 2.16 2.28 2.5 2.63 2.79 3 3.04 3.26 3.5 3.62 3.78 4 4.16 4.29 4.49 4.59 4.79 4.94 4.99 5.24 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.2 4 5.25 5.26 5.26 5.25 5.25 5.25 5.26 5.02 4.94 4.76 4.49 4.24 3.94 2.98 2.61 2.28 1.98 2 2.01 2 1.81 0.97 0.39 0.16 0.15 0.22 0.18 0.15 30-year mortgage rate 2000 2000.08333333333 2000.16666666667 2000.25 2000.33333333333 2000.41666666667 2000.5 2000.58333333333 2000.66666666667 2000.75 2000.83333333333 2000.91666666667 2001 2001.08333333333 2001.16666666667 2001.25 2001.33333333333 2001.41666666667 2001.5 2001.58333333333 2001.66666666667 2001.75 2001.83333333333 2001.91666666667 2002 2002.08333333333 2002.16666666667 2002.25 2002.33333333333 2002.41666666667 2002.5 2002.58333333333 2002.66666666667 2002.75 2002.83333333333 2002.91666666667 2003 2003.08333333333 2003.16666666667 2003.25 2003.33333333333 2003.41666666667 2003.5 2003.58333333333 2003.66666666666 2003.75 2003.83333333333 2003.91666666667 2004 2004.08333333333 2004.16666666666 2004.25 2004.33333333333 2004.41666666667 2004.5 2004.58333333333 2004.66666666666 2004.75 2004.83333333333 2004.91666666667 2004.99999999999 2005.08333333333 2005.16666666666 2005.24999999999 2005.33333333333 2005.41666666666 2005.49999999999 2005.58333333333 2005.66666666666 2005.74999999999 2005.83333333332 2005.91666666666 2005.99999999999 2006.08333333332 2006.16666666666 2006.24999999999 2006.33333333332 2006.41666666666 2006.49999999999 2006.58333333332 2006.66666666666 2006.74999999999 2006.83333333332 2006.91666666666 2006.99999999999 2007.08333333332 2007.16666666666 2007.24999999999 2007.33333333332 2007.41666666666 2007.49999999999 2007.58333333332 2007.66666666666 2007.74999999999 2007.83333333332 2007.91666666666 2007.99999999999 2008.08333333332 2008.16666666666 2008.24999999999 2008.33333333332 2008.41666666666 2008.49999999999 2008.58333333332 2008.66666666666 2008.74999999999 2008.83333333332 2008.91666666666 2008.99999999999 2009.08333333332 2009.16666666666 2009.24999999999 8.21 8.33 8.24 8.15 8.52 8.29 8.15 8.03 7.91 7.8 7.75 7.38 7.03 7.05 6.95 7.08 7.15 7.16 7.13 6.95 6.82 6.62 6.66 7.07 7 6.89 7.01 6.99 6.81 6.65 6.49 6.29 6.09 6.11 6.07 6.05 5.92 5.84 5.75 5.81 5.48 5.23 5.63 6.26 6.15 5.95 5.93 5.88 5.74 5.64 5.45 5.83 6.27 6.29 6.06 5.87 5.75 5.72 5.73 5.75 5.71 5.63 5.93 5.86 5.72 5.58 5.7 5.82 5.77 6.07 6.33 6.27 6.15 6.25 6.32 6.51 6.6 6.68 6.76 6.52 6.4 6.36 6.24 6.14 6.22 6.29 6.16 6.18 6.26 6.66 6.7 6.57 6.38 6.38 6.21 6.1 5.76 5.92 5.97 5.92 6.04 6.32 6.43 6.48 6.04 6.2 6.09 5.33 5.06 5.13 5 4.81 Case-Shiller 20-city composite house price index 2000 2000.08333333333 2000.16666666667 2000.25 2000.33333333333 2000.41666666667 2000.5 2000.58333333333 2000.66666666667 2000.75 2000.83333333333 2000.91666666667 2001 2001.08333333333 2001.16666666667 2001.25 2001.33333333333 2001.41666666667 2001.5 2001.58333333333 2001.66666666667 2001.75 2001.83333333333 2001.91666666667 2002 2002.08333333333 2002.16666666667 2002.25 2002.33333333333 2002.41666666667 2002.5 2002.58333333333 2002.66666666667 2002.75 2002.83333333333 2002.91666666667 2003 2003.08333333333 2003.16666666667 2003.25 2003.33333333333 2003.41666666667 2003.5 2003.58333333333 2003.66666666666 2003.75 2003.83333333333 2003.91666666667 2004 2004.08333333333 2004.16666666666 2004.25 2004.33333333333 2004.41666666667 2004.5 2004.58333333333 2004.66666666666 2004.75 2004.83333333333 2004.91666666667 2004.99999999999 2005.08333333333 2005.16666666666 2005.24999999999 2005.33333333333 2005.41666666666 2005.49999999999 2005.58333333333 2005.66666666666 2005.74999999999 2005.83333333332 2005.91666666666 2005.99999999999 2006.08333333332 2006.16666666666 2006.24999999999 2006.33333333332 2006.41666666666 2006.49999999999 2006.58333333332 2006.66666666666 2006.74999999999 2006.83333333332 2006.91666666666 2006.99999999999 2007.08333333332 2007.16666666666 2007.24999999999 2007.33333333332 2007.41666666666 2007.49999999999 2007.58333333332 2007.66666666666 2007.74999999999 2007.83333333332 2007.91666666666 2007.99999999999 2008.08333333332 2008.16666666666 2008.24999999999 2008.33333333332 2008.41666666666 2008.49999999999 2008.58333333332 2008.66666666666 2008.74999999999 2008.83333333332 2008.91666666666 2008.99999999999 2009.08333333332 2009.16666666666 2009.24999999999 100 100.76 101.95 103.5 105.2 106.76 107.77 108.64 109.35 110.04 110.81 111.58 112.39 113.07 114.14 115.29 116.24 117.29 118.2 119.09 119.84 120.31 120.53 120.43 120.64 121.06 122.3 123.92 125.86 127.82 129.66 131.22 132.43 133.55 134.41 135.15 135.64 136.19 137.2 138.56 140.06 141.39 142.99 144.56 146.28 147.82 149.22 150.49 151.69 153.1 155.49 158.47 161.6 164.82 167.43 169.31 170.96 172.41 173.65 174.83 176.44 178.5 181.3 184.24 187.21 190.1 192.67 194.98 197.36 199.4 200.97 201.97 202.44 203.19 203.65 204.82 205.86 206.38 206.52 206.18 205.8 205.41 204.65 203.33 202.31 201.57 201.01 200.54 200.12 199.44 198.72 197.37 195.69 192.98 188.94 184.96 180.68 175.96 172.2 169.98 168.6 167.77 166.36 164.64 161.64 158.09 154.51 150.56 146.34 143.1 139.97 139.18
interest rate (%)

House price index, 2000 = 100

Change in U.S. house price index
and rate of new foreclosures, 1999–2009

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II
The housing bubble pops, driving up foreclosure rates:

The data show rapid house price appreciation in the early to mid 2000s, which falls starting in 2005 and turns negative in 2007.
Looking at the period 2005-2009, the rate of house price appreciation falls while the rate of new foreclosure starts rises.

How to interpret these data:
New foreclosure starts is the number of new foreclosures in the quarter as a percentage of the total number of mortgages.
The house price data shown is the percentage change in the U.S. index from four quarters earlier. (Note: this is a different house price index than the one on the previous slide, though both tell the same story.)

Sources:
Mortgage Banker’s Association (for foreclosure starts) and Federal Housing Finance Authority (for house price indexes).

US house price index 1980 1980.25 1980.5 1980.75 1981 1981.25 1981.5 1981.75 1982 1982.25 1982.5 1982.75 1983 1983.25 1983.5 1983.75 1984 1984.25 1984.5 1984.75 1985 1985.25 1985.5 1985.75 1986 1986.25 1986.5 1986.75 1987 1987.25 1987.5 1987.75 1988 1988.25 1988.5 1988.75 1989 1989.25 1989.5 1989.75 1990 1990.25 1990.5 1990.75 1991 1991.25 1991.5 1991.75 1992 1992.25 1992.5 1992.75 1993 1993.25 1993.5 1993.75 1994 1994.25 1994.5 1994.75 1995 1995.25 1995.5 1995.75 1996 1996.25 1996.5 1996.75 1997 1997.25 1997.5 1997.75 1998 1998.25 1998.5 1998.75 1999 1999.25 1999.5 1999.75 2000 2000.25 2000.5 2000.75 2001 2001.25 2001.5 2001.75 2002 2002.25 2002.5 2002.75 2003 2003.25 2003.5 2003.75 2004 2004.25 2004.5 2004.75 2005 2005.25 2005.5 2005.75 2006 2006.25 2006.5 2006.75 2007 2007.25 2007.5 2007.75 2008 2008.25 2008.5 2008.75 2009 0.0925379656943081 0.0728469788680047 0.0856459827460767 0.0679176014684888 0.0570000000000001 0.06601999406117 0.0438487314504547 0.0446906035141331 0.0480605487228004 0.0316620241411327 0.0153168852609374 0.0184643510054845 0.0247337064452067 0.0337503375033751 0.0444444444444445 0.0417339795368874 0.0380549682875265 0.0429218178652273 0.0453208787407022 0.0517790988196778 0.0504073319755601 0.049753735704149 0.058497435048817 0.0605340760157274 0.0657618355146226 0.0709343936381709 0.0700383021965136 0.0743029273190703 0.0758793208004853 0.0718794089255217 0.0678647088903501 0.0583075706377166 0.0549566687803846 0.058468998960859 0.0554795457654943 0.0584918478260871 0.0541641621585521 0.0475161987041038 0.0603409164560244 0.0591104550413968 0.0497972630511912 0.0369259606373008 0.0187652811735941 0.00599927281541621 0.0105009052504527 0.014762593395999 0.011219775604488 0.0292753448587436 0.0279503105590063 0.0210795083427351 0.0314465408805033 0.0221220811142974 0.0144085521729026 0.0244242847173761 0.0205361251725724 0.0242771256799312 0.0302978235967926 0.0266235240690281 0.0231103094526802 0.0131365643691656 0.0116182111290233 0.0239977882222837 0.0361412594347419 0.0460715073935113 0.0546213869656006 0.0380150116096981 0.0266390173871433 0.0273221161453663 0.0241246352646937 0.0306923997294908 0.0412782266418065 0.0457976074344099 0.0519969473416435 0.0515318225407561 0.0506839 094752548 0.0495360596985616 0.0439618900227306 0.0498704041470673 0.0506532853626207 0.0493030217981103 0.0597609561752988 0.0627714533900243 0.0669099756690997 0.0723519971469333 0.0786413708690331 0.0791964208896156 0.0760589551923646 0.0727083766368739 0.061033434650456 0.0612667915653526 0.0664442700156986 0.0685552627499612 0.0660784538405715 0.0607346754807693 0.0555698671475361 0.0701410800420701 0.0747375586686253 0.0882050918876812 0.111634068960709 0.105398718948046 0.113111311131113 0.12026552128075 0.112623490669594 0.113223165833768 0.106738544474394 0.0834785639595678 0.0612244897959184 0.0514458826769483 0.0396709422525301 0.0308562543563348 0.0143699532511686 0.0035884540835036 -0.0035398230088496 -0.0209606532650247 -0.036555 0289350336 -0.0383139762495105 -0.0334865740257026 New foreclosures 1980 1980.25 1980.5 1980.75 1981 1981.25 1981.5 1981.75 1982 1982.25 1982.5 1982.75 1983 1983.25 1983.5 1983.75 1984 1984.25 1984.5 1984.75 1985 1985.25 1985.5 1985.75 1986 198 6.25 1986.5 1986.75 1987 1987.25 1987.5 1987.75 1988 1988.25 1988.5 1988.75 1989 1989.25 1989.5 1989.75 1990 1990.25 1990.5 1990.75 1991 1991.25 1991.5 1991.75 1992 1992.25 1992.5 1992.75 1993 1993.25 1993.5 1993.75 1994 1994.25 1994.5 1994.75 1995 1995.25 1995.5 1995.75 1996 1996.25 1996.5 1996.75 1997 1997.25 1997.5 1997.75 1998 1998.25 1998.5 1998.75 1999 1999.25 1999.5 1999.75 2000 2000.25 2000.5 2000.75 2001 2001.25 2001.5 2001.75 2002 2002.25 2002.5 2002.75 2003 2003.25 2003.5 2003.75 2004 2004.25 2004.5 2004.75 2005 2005.25 2005.5 2005.75 2006 2006.25 2006.5 2006.75 2007 2007.25 2007.5 2007.75 2008 2008.25 2008.5 2008.75 2009 0.14 0.13 0.15 0.16 0.18 0.16 0.14 0.17 0.22 0.19 0.2 0.23 0.22 0.22 0.2 0.22 0.2 0.21 0.23 0.2 0.25 0.22 0.22 0.22 0.25 0.24 0.26 0.26 0.28 0.24 0.25 0.27 0.29 0.26 0.26 0.27 0.31 0.35 0.320000000000001 0.320000000000001 0.330000000000001 0.3 0.320000000000001 0.29 0.330000000000001 0.330000000000001 0.34 0.35 0.34 0.320000000000001 0.320000000000001 0.34 0.320000000000001 0.320000000000001 0.31 0.31 0.31 0.34 0.34 0.330000000000001 0.320000000000001 0.330000000000001 0.320000000000001 0.330000000000001 0.37 0.34 0.330000000000001 0.330000000000001 0.36 0.35 0.34 0.37 0.37 0.37 0.36 0.39 0.36 0.34 0.330000000000001 0.36 0.36 0.3 0.42 0.43 0.4 0.47 0.46 0.47 0.45 0.49 0.44 0.42 0.41 0.36 0.43 0.46 0.46 0.39 0.42 0.46 0.42 0.38 0.41 0.42 0.42 0.4 0.47 0.57 0.59 0.59 0.78 0.88 1.01 1.08 1.07 1.08 1.37
Percent change in house prices
(from 4 quarters earlier)

New foreclosure starts
(% of total mortgages)

House price change and new foreclosures, 2006:Q3–2009:Q1
New foreclosures,
% of all mortgages
Cumulative change in house price index
Nevada
Georgia
Colorado
Texas
Alaska
Wyoming
Arizona
California
Florida
S. Dakota
Illinois
Michigan
Rhode Island
Wisconsin
Oregon
Ohio
New Jersey
Hawaii

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II
States with the biggest price drops tended to have the most new foreclosures:

The horizontal axis measures the cumulative change in the state’s house price index during 2006:3 – 2009:1. The vertical axis measures the number of new foreclosure starts in the state as a percentage of all outstanding mortgages in the state, summed over the period 2006:3 – 2009:1.

This graph shows that states with larger housing price crashes tended to have higher foreclosure rates.

Sources:
Mortgage Banker’s Association (for foreclosure starts) and Federal Housing Finance Authority (for house price indexes).

new foreclosures (% of all mortgages) -0.286517265817836 -0.21599283840613 -0.0731645085156599 -0.181096783335695 -0.269006674519043 0.0375277689622342 0.00601571605820193 -0.103456435392546 0.0375810341047884 -0.00816083878290002 0.0614921780986763 -0.0171589460263494 -0.0251025430680886 0.0377553586898807 0.0575052552820037 0.018053694001056 0.0210352457228335 0.0754500065694391 -0.0598078982949658 0.0724737004420385 0.0295783725111088 0.0928832398497397 -0.0602009512819791 0.043437708194537 0.0821838245970669 0.073287642433671 -0.0485743174924165 -0.031699178644764 0.100559973648299 -0.0768525942045585 0.024754843338914 0.051025576095214 0.0507109394263173 -0.0111367606688295 0.0323512274212754 -0.03493366724 25544 0.0438104333293542 0.0775761805070947 0.0853658536585365 0.0362211395890701 -0.00766089909443731 -0.027528321990041 0.0444086225425124 -0.0511701928477814 0.0350760350760352 -0.00598531902879725 0.0150647594498088 0.0855123928404895 0.0863106850231314 0.0376947500553792 0.119174615534358 0.0996904283801879 0.179 0.1613 0.1296 0.126 0.124 0.123 0.1219 0.1108 0.1016 0.0988000000000001 0.0986000000000002 0.0949 0.0877 0.0837000000000001 0.0835000000000003 0.0809 0.0789 0.0784 0.0783 0.0779 0.0754 0.0748 0.0744000000000001 0.0719 0.071 0.0706 0.0699 0.0687 0.0681 0.0675 0.0649 0.0647000000000001 0.0643000000000001 0.0631 0.0631 0.063 0.0618 0.0612 0.0606 0.0594000000000001 0.0593000000000001 0.0586 0.0543 0.0535 0.0495 0.0483 0.0462 0.0434 0.0363 0.0362000000000001 0.0312 0.0302

U.S. bank failures by year, 2000–2011

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II
The housing market crisis led to rising bank failures.

The 2009 and 2010 values dwarf all previous years since 2000. However, it’s worth noting that the 2008 value, 26, is much higher than the preceding years.

In fact, prior to 2008, there’s only one year (2002) in which there are more than 5 bank failures. So, the 2008 is extreme up to that point, but the 2009 value is so extreme as to make the 2008 value seem almost normal.

source: FDIC, this page lists all of the banks that have failed by name.
http://www.fdic.gov/bank/individual/failed/banklist.html

Series 1 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2 4 11 3 4 0 0 3 26 140 157 92
Number of bank failures

Major U.S. stock indexes
(% change from 52 weeks earlier)

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II
Recent stock market behavior plays an important role:

This chart begins at the end of 1999, when the tech stock bubble was about to pop. In 2000-2001, you can see the fall in stock prices (especially in the Nasdaq composite, which heavily weights tech stocks). This drop in stock prices was a factor in the 2001 recession.

All three indexes registered negative growth until about June 2003. Growth was strong for a while until moderating in about July 2004. Stock price growth bounced around between about 0 and 20% through the end of 2007, then turned sharply negative in 2008.

source: finance.yahoo.com,
Dow Jones Industrial Average symbol: ^DJI
S&P500 symbol: ^GSPC
Nasdaq Composite Index symbol: ^IXIC
click on “historical prices”
specify frequency, date range

DJIA 36528 36535 36543 36549 36556 36563 36570 36578 36584 36591 36598 36605 36612 36619 36626 36633 36640 36647 36654 36661 36668 36676 36682 36689 36696 36703 36710 36717 36724 36731 36738 36745 36752 36759 36766 36774 36780 36787 36794 36801 36808 36815 36822 36829 36836 36843 36850 36857 36864 36871 36878 36886 36893 36899 36907 36913 36920 36927 36934 36942 36948 36955 36962 36969 36976 36983 36990 36997 37004 37011 37018 37025 37032 37040 37046 37053 37060 37067 37074 37081 37088 37095 37102 37109 37116 37123 37130 37138 37144 37158 37165 37172 37179 37186 37193 37200 37207 37214 37221 37228 37235 37242 37249 37256 37263 37270 37278 37284 37291 37298 37306 37312 37319 37326 37333 37340 37347 37354 37361 37368 37375 37382 37389 37396 37404 37410 37417 37424 37431 37438 37445 37452 37459 37466 37473 37480 37487 37494 37502 37508 37515 37522 37529 37536 37543 37550 37557 37564 37571 37578 37585 37592 37599 37606 37613 37620 37627 37634 37642 37648 37655 37662 37670 37676 37683 37690 37697 37704 37711 37718 37725 37732 37739 37746 37753 37760 37768 37774 37781 37788 37795 37802 37809 37816 37823 37830 37837 37844 37851 37858 37866 37872 37879 37886 37893 37900 37907 37914 37921 37928 37935 37942 37949 37956 37963 37970 37977 37984 37991 37998 38006 38012 38019 38026 38034 38040 38047 38054 38061 38068 38075 38082 38089 38096 38103 38110 38117 38124 38131 38139 38145 38152 38159 38166 38174 38180 38187 38194 38201 38208 38215 38222 38229 38237 38243 38250 38257 38264 38271 38278 38285 38292 38299 38306 38313 38320 38327 38334 38341 38348 38355 38362 38370 38376 38383 38390 38397 38405 38411 38418 38425 38432 38439 38446 38453 38460 38467 38474 38481 38488 38495 38503 38509 38516 38523 38530 38538 38544 38551 38558 38565 38572 38579 38586 38593 38601 38607 38614 38621 38628 38635 38642 38649 38656 38663 38670 38677 38684 38691 38698 38705 38713 38720 38726 38734 38740 38747 38754 38761 38769 38775 38782 38789 38796 38803 38810 38817 38824 38831 38838 38845 38852 38859 38867 38873 38880 38887 38894 38901 38908 38915 38922 38929 38936 38943 38950 38957 38965 38971 38978 38985 38992 38999 39006 39013 39020 39027 39034 39041 39048 39055 39062 39069 39077 39085 39090 39098 39104 39111 39118 39125 39133 39139 39146 39153 39160 39167 39174 39181 39188 39195 39202 39209 39216 39223 39231 39237 39244 39251 39258 39265 39272 39279 39286 39293 39300 39307 39314 39321 39329 39335 39342 39349 39356 39363 39370 39377 39384 39391 39398 39405 39412 39419 39426 39433 39440 39447 39454 39461 39469 39475 39482 39489 39497 39503 39510 39517 39524 39531 39538 39545 39552 39559 39566 39573 39580 39587 39595 39601 39608 39615 39622 39629 39636 39643 39650 39657 39664 39671 39678 39685 39693 39699 39706 39713 39720 39727 39734 39741 39748 39755 39762 39769 39776 39783 39790 39797 39804 39811 39818 39825 39833 39839 39846 39853 39861 39867 39874 39881 39888 39895 39902 39909 39916 39923 39930 39937 39944 39951 39959 39965 39972 39979 39986 39993 40000 40007 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-0.0369962871527712 -0.0455464401963921 -0.0115695049737145 -0.0440014234374453 -0.0349130807369775 -0.038460641761931 -0.0655611011493468 -0.0706345405104752 -0.110478136776236 -0.157933028565429 -0.17285555966014 -0.150625093019794 -0.0982382602722618 -0.0797570930811351 -0.0513931839883062 -0.0209618248084854 -0.0628635963193091 -0.0881387789058533 -0.120754569902951 -0.131009384439202 -0.148741024700325 -0.191804553026097 -0.299580623813088 -0.41208191953466 -0.372040540738892 -0.446531797060827 -0.387645087141242 -0.373121151928888 -0.424834296461452 -0.466860509897561 -0.42292631230834 -0.442268749815236 -0.415450689369971 -0.418898287140742 -0.427832160510908 -0.34832810971593 -0.355889898931943 -0.346445756873873 -0.364934227495486 -0.388230516789871 -0.309408421372325 -0.339150658971488 -0.37428962163805 -0.393417507528131 -0.415206396413091 -0.352991425949949 -0.354650570609935 -0.316639984432907 -0.31594952298206 -0.278442433980718 -0.303749110475786 -0.300726805974587 -0.305931796252711 -0.288903791422684 -0.335611048500306 -0.307877954897799 -0.296643225801336 -0.252626729600414 -0.242697086983093 -0.24048144499998 -0.206168515695513 -0.199903802474415 -0.215735927255837 -0.173547166174577

Consumer sentiment and growth in consumer durables and investment spending

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II
Consumer confidence crashes, bringing down durables and investment spending:

The University of Michigan Index of Consumer Sentiment is a measure of consumer confidence and is highly correlated with the more famous “Consumer Confidence Index” published by the Conference Board. (I’m using the U-M index because it’s free and in the public domain, while the Conference Board index is proprietary and not free.)

The graph shows a strong relation among the three series: as consumer confidence falls, consumer spending on durables slows down and turns negative, as does investment spending.

Sources:
Durables and investment from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Dept of Commerce
Consumer Sentiment Index from the University of Michigan Survey Research Center
All three series obtained from FRED, http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/

Durables 1995 1995.25 1995.5 1995.75 1996 1996.25 1996.5 1996.75 1997 199 7.25 1997.5 1997.75 1998 1998.25 1998.5 1998.75 1999 1999.25 1999.5 1999.75 2000 2000.25 2000.5 2000.75 2001 2001.25 2001.5 2001.75 2002 2002.25 2002.5 2002.75 2003 2003.25 2003.5 2003.75 2004 2004.25 2004.5 2004.75 2005 2005.25 2005.5 2005.75 2006 2006.25 2006.5 2006.75 2007 2007.25 2007.5 2007.75 2008 2008.25 2008.5 2008.75 2009 0.0579787234042554 0.0500000000000001 0.0583504449007529 0.0362737015663645 0.066029830735713 0.0822963331674133 0.0598221503637834 0.060143198090692 0.0734161295393805 0.0329602943430937 0.0680396643783372 0.0715893741557858 0.0426186291739895 0.0979519145146929 0.0782745322096843 0.112324929971989 0.102963899424077 0.106380102730468 0.103192475824613 0.0502392344497608 0.116785532348446 0.043616371411118 0.0342219020172911 0.0321304399952044 -0.00547382825863834 0.0122922032310934 0.00441193544641828 0.0835172493901733 0.0494209379658298 0.0626806985081531 0.0866951797480062 -0.0121140651801029 -0.00404283216783222 0.0200239416693873 0.0258483140091479 0.0389582202930005 0.0637410861217773 0.0400085351541663 0.0233305682289506 0.048777940254857 0.0381600660066006 0.0600123102174805 0.0524875873948729 0.000298775022408082 0.0396383866481224 0.0152908158327688 0.0151150476557235 0.0535643170051773 0.02876254180602 0.0345057668477744 0.0301593323216995 0.0234360234360234 -0.00520156046814037 -0.0239565097208145 -0.0644448536181182 -0.126223453370268 -0.0999066293183942 Investment 1995 1995.25 1995.5 1995.75 1996 1996.25 1996.5 1996.75 1997 1997.25 1997.5 1997.75 1998 1998.25 1998.5 1998.75 1999 1999.25 1999.5 1999.75 2000 2000.25 2000.5 2000.75 2001 2001.25 2001.5 2001.75 2002 2002.25 2002.5 2002.75 2003 2003.25 2003.5 2003.75 2004 2004.25 2004.5 2004.75 2005 2005.25 2005.5 2005.75 2006 2006.25 2006.5 2006.75 2007 2007.25 2007.5 2007.75 2008 2008.25 2008.5 2008.75 2009 0.112538343558282 0.023402909550917 0.0304693933571232 0.00969009166302917 0.00809925900396355 0.0841426805580082 0.1364766471 31948 0.109545218744596 0.124273504273505 0.128104894535386 0.109071021173529 0.121405750798722 0.144518777558157 0.0645394166907305 0.0622050017611835 0.0760892224306859 0.0605778811026238 0.0781906957819071 0.0799177609762569 0.0898230659950928 0.0473476545374835 0.120636518020001 0.074126389485967 0.0303371452272324 0.00179393649464809 -0.075209069989336 -0.0777587192681533 -0.125079072977169 -0.0663761714319824 -0.0463069733568005 -0.0124612523248605 0.0517286709609569 0.027044306630011 0.0290823469517626 0.061271894029757 0.0888694456596466 0.101593625498008 0.159854059736566 0.141496598639456 0.13614188142111 0.15619349005425 0.0874920025591811 0.0800642586930611 0.0985602424854764 0.093206256109482 0.104917389812227 0.0707705594472699 -0.00694380575738064 -0.053158671256762 -0.0472556240848384 -0.0303356185867276 -0.0311183144246352 -0.0291340069883843 -0.0681352459016392 -0.0707486136783734 -0.0889929742388762 -0.221730460580711 UM Consumer Sentiment Index 1998.99999999998 1999.08333333331 1999.16666666665 1999.24999999998 1999.33333333331 1999.41666666665 1999.49999999998 1999.58333333331 1999.66666666665 1999.74999999998 1999.83333333331 1999.91666666665 1999.99999999998 2000.08333333331 2000.16666666665 2000.24999999998 2000.33333333331 2000.41666666665 2000.49999999998 2000.58333333331 2000.66666666665 2000.74999999998 2000.83333333331 2000.91666666665 2000.99999999998 2001.08333333331 2001.16666666665 2001.24999999998 2001.33333333331 2001.41666666665 2001.49999999998 2001.58333333331 2001.66666666664 2001.74999999998 2001.83333333331 2001.91666666665 2001.99999999998 2002.08333333331 2002.16666666664 2002.24999999998 2002.33333333331 2002.41666666665 2002.49999999998 2002.58333333331 2002.66666666664 2002.74999999998 2002.83333333331 2002.91666666665 2002.99999999998 2003.08333333331 2003.16666666664 2003.24999999998 2003.33333333331 2003.416666666 65 2003.49999999998 2003.58333333331 2003.66666666664 2003.74999999998 2003.83333333331 2003.91666666665 2003.99999999998 2004.08333333331 2004.16666666664 2004.24999999998 2004.33333333331 2004.41666666665 2004.49999999998 2004.58333333331 2004.66666666664 2004.74999999998 2004.83333333331 2004.91666666664 2004.99999999997 2005.08333333331 2005.16666666664 2005.24999999997 2005.33333333331 2005.41666666664 2005.49999999997 2005.58333333331 2005.66666666664 2005.74999999997 2005.83333333331 2005.91666666664 2005.99999999997 2006.08333333331 2006.16666666664 2006.24999999997 2006.3333333333 2006.41666666664 2006.49999999997 2006.5833333333 2006.66666666664 2006.74999999997 2006.8333333333 2006.91 666666664 2006.99999999997 2007.0833333333 2007.16666666664 2007.24999999997 2007.3333333333 2007.41666666664 2007.49999999997 2007.5833333333 2007.66666666664 2007.74999999997 2007.8333333333 2007.91666666664 2007.99999999997 2008.0833333333 2008.16666666664 2008.24999999997 2008.3333333333 2008.41666666664 2008.49999999997 2008.5833333333 2008.66666666664 2008.74999999997 2008.8333333333 2008.91666666664 2008.99999999997 2009.0833333333 2009.16666666664 2009.24999999997 2009.3333333333 2009.41666666664 103.9 108.1 105.7 104.6 106.8 107.3 106 104.5 107.2 103.2 107.2 105.4 112 111.3 107.1 109.2 110.7 106.4 108.3 107.3 106.8 105.8 107.6 98.4 94.7 90.6 91.5 88.4 92 92.6 92.4 91.5 81.8 82.7 83.9 88.8 93 90.7 95.7 93 96.9 92.4 88.1 87.6 86.1 80.6 84.2 86.7 82.4 79.9 77.6 86 92.1 89.7 90.9 89.3 87.7 89.6 93.7 92.6 103.8 94.4 95.8 94.2 90.2 95.6 96.7 95.9 94.2 91.7 92.8 97.1 95.5 94.1 92.6 87.7 86.9 96 96.5 89.1 76.9 74.2 81.6 91.5 91.2 86.7 88.9 87.4 79.1 84.9 84.7 82 85.4 93.6 92.1 91.7 96.9 91.3 88.4 87.1 88.3 85.3 90.4 83.4 83.4 80.9 76.1 75.5 78.4 70.8 69.5 62.6 59.8 56.4 61.2 63 70.3 57.6 55.3 60.1 61.2 56.3 57.3 65.1 68.7 70.8
% change from four quarters earlier

Consumer Sentiment Index, 1966 = 100

Real GDP growth and unemployment

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II
Result: the strongest recession in decades

2001 recession: GDP growth falls, unemployment rises

2002-2007 recovery: GDP growth speeds up, then slows down but remains positive. Unemployment, a lagging indicator, begins coming down in mid-2003.

2008-2009: The housing crisis, rising foreclosure rates, failing financial institutions, falling consumer confidence, and falling consumer and business spending finally take their toll, sending the economy into the strongest recession in decades.
1

Real GDP growth rate (left scale) 34700 34790 34881 34973 35065 35156 35247 35339 35431 35521 35612 35704 35796 35886 35977 36069 36161 36251 36342 36434 36526 36617 36708 36800 36892 36982 37073 37165 37257 37347 37438 37530 37622 37712 37803 37895 37987 38078 38169 38261 38353 38443 38534 38626 38718 38808 38899 38991 39083 39173 39264 39356 39448 39539 39630 39722 39814 39904 39995 40087 40179 40269 40360 40452 40544 40634 40725 40817 40909 3.40691 2.23082 2.43011 2.01101 2.45853 4.00575 4.03713 4.4451 4.53173 4.27918 4.67682 4.34043 4.52268 3.92197 3.98823 4.98285 4.9263 4.80384 4.75483999999999 4.8216 4.16819999999999 5.37616 4.14034 2.90964 2.30387 1.00366 0.64042 0.39735 1.58844 1.46457 2.26117 1.94019 1.4982 1.81643 2.96981 3.8652 4.11550999999999 3.90543 2.9839 2.89569 3.27697 3.07316 3.1237 2.81258 3.04754 3.00699 2.20907 2.37759 1.23833 1.73685 2.46633 2.20579 1.61381 1.0392 -0.62473 -3.32058 -4.5497 -5.02761 -3.73401 -0.54333 2.1677 3.30029 3.50624 3.142 2.24306 1.63342 1.46123 1.61091 1.992 Unemployment rate (right scale) 34700 34790 34881 34973 35065 35156 35247 35339 35431 35521 35612 35704 35796 35886 35977 36069 36161 36251 36342 36434 36526 36617 36708 36800 36892 36982 37073 37165 37257 37347 37438 37530 37622 37712 37803 37895 37987 38078 38169 38261 38353 38443 38534 38626 38718 38808 38899 38991 39083 39173 39264 39356 39448 39539 39630 39722 39814 39904 39995 40087 40179 40269 40360 40452 40544 40634 40725 40817 40909 5.5 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.3 5.3 5.2 5 4.9 4.7 4.6 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.3 4.2 4.1 4 3.9 4 3.9 4.2 4.4 4.8 5.5 5.7 5.8 5.7 5.9 5.9 6.1 6.1 5.8 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.3 5.1 5 5 4.7 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.7 4.8 5 5.3 6 6.9 8.3 9.3 9.6 9.9 9.8 9.6 9.5 9.6 9 9 9.1 8.7 8.3
% change from 4 quarters earlier

% of labor force

CHAPTER SUMMARY
1. IS-LM model
a theory of aggregate demand
exogenous: M, G, T,
P exogenous in short run, Y in long run
endogenous: r,
Y endogenous in short run, P in long run
IS curve: goods market equilibrium
LM curve: money market equilibrium

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II

CHAPTER SUMMARY
2. AD curve
shows relation between P and the IS-LM model’s equilibrium Y.
negative slope because
hP g i(M/P) g hr g iI g iY
expansionary fiscal policy shifts IS curve right, raises income, and shifts AD curve right.
expansionary monetary policy shifts LM curve right, raises income, and shifts AD curve right.
IS or LM shocks shift the AD curve.

CHAPTER 12 Aggregate Demand II

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